Phillies vs. Dodgers odds, prediction: Can left-handed pitching stifle L.A.’s bats?
We have a Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction as both teams get set to play the middle game of this series. The Phillies will be looking to bounce back after a 13-4 loss in the series opener.
It was a second straight loss for Philadelphia to follow a decent stretch that included seven wins in its past 10 games.
If we turn to the Dodgers, they’ll try to remain perfect on this home stand while extending their winning streak to four games.
Odds updated as of 12:45 p.m. ET on May 2.
Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.
Tuesday’s matchup features dueling southpaws as Philadelphia sends Matt Strahm to the mound while Los Angeles will counter with Julio Urías.
The Dodgers are as high as a -178 favorite, and while that price range might be linked to their recent success, I think it’s fair to question if they’re overvalued, particularly when going up against another left-handed starter.
Phillies ML +150
Phillies — Matt Strahm (2-2, 2.31 ERA) vs. Dodgers — Julio Urías (3-3, 4.41 ERA)
There was plenty of eye rolls Phillies in December when the Phillies signed Strahm to a two-year $15 million. After all, it’s not like he was one of the top free agents during the offseason.
According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, an unnamed executive even described the deal as potentially harmful to the market. But while other clubs around baseball viewed Strahm solely as a reliever, the Phillies saw him as a potential starter.
Although Strahm made all 50 of his 2022 appearances as a reliever, he did have experience as a starter from the early part of his major league career with the Royals and the Padres.
What particularly piqued Philadelphia’s interest in Strahm was his ability to throw five different pitches (fastball, sinker, change-up, slider and curveball) out of the bullpen. And when injuries to the Phillies’ starting rotation created a void, they had an opportunity to test their theory to use Strahm as a starter.
According to FanGraphs, the results have certainly been good, given his traditional ERA and his 2.79 FIP. His 12.34 K/9 ratio is elite, and he’s shown good command by issuing just 2.70 walks per nine innings.
Strahm will be up against a Dodgers lineup that’s had its issues against left-handed pitching. While we often think about the Dodgers as having a juggernaut offense, they rank just 27th with a below-average wRC+ value of 75 when facing lefties this season.
As for Urías, he’s struggled out of the gate, posting a 4.41 ERA. His 4.77 FIP points to further regression, and he’s been more susceptible to the long ball than at any other time in his career.
Urías has a 1.93 HR/9 ratio after posting a 1.18 HR/9 mark in the previous campaign. A closer look also reveals that his fastball velocity is down to 92.6 mph after averaging 93.1 mph in 2022.
I know it feels like Urías is a veteran since this is already his eighth season with the Dodgers. However, he’s still only 26 years old.
As a result, there are some clear warning signs with him early on, which leads me to believe this line is slightly inflated.
My model makes Los Angeles closer to a -160 favorite, with Philadelphia at +140. Thus, I have about a 10-cent edge on the market price, so I can only look to back the Phillies in this spot.
Moneyline: PHI (+150) vs. LAD (-178)
Spread: PHI +1.5 (-138) vs. LAD -1.5 (+115)
Total: Over 8.5 (-106) | Under 8.5 (-114)
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