Phillies vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, Odds

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06 April 2023

Phillies vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, Odds

Between Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres, the Yankees have been going yard at an impressive rate to start the 2023 campaign. With Philly sending a spot starter to the mound tonight, our MLB betting picks expect New York to do more damage.

The Philadelphia Phillies are still searching for their first win of the season as they face off against the New York Yankees for the second game of their series on Tuesday.

Philadelphia (0-4) dropped the opener at Yankee Stadium 8-1. New York (3-1) has enjoyed a power surge to start the season, hitting multiple home runs in every game so far this season.

The Yankees are cruising through their early schedule and get to face off against a spot starter on Tuesday.

We’ll examine whether New York’s hot start can continue in our MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Yankees below.

Phillies vs Yankees odds

Phillies vs Yankees predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost the first four games of their season for the first time since 2016. They haven’t started the year 0-5 since 1934, so while it’s hardly time to panic for the defending National League champions, there are definitely some questions being asked in Philly today.

What’s gone wrong for the Phillies so far this year? They’re only averaging 3.0 runs per game, despite the fact that their peripheral numbers are solid. They're hitting .287 so far on the year, though their .325 on-base percentage is only about league average.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff has been a disaster through the first go-around. The Phillies are giving up a league-worst 9.25 runs per game. Only one starter, Bailey Falter, has made it out of the fifth inning, while Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have combined to allow nine earned runs in just eight innings so far.

While we have to expect Philadelphia to get better pitching at some point this season, today doesn’t look like the day we’ll see things turn around. The Phillies are sending Matt Strahm to the mound for his second appearance of the year after he threw an inning in relief on Opening Day.

Strahm is a journeyman pitcher who's started 25 games and made a total of 208 appearances in his career. As a starter, Strahm is just 4-10 with a 5.08 ERA. He hasn’t made a real start — one in which he wasn’t deployed as an opener — since July 2019.

It would be one thing if Strahm was being eased back into a starting role. Instead, he faces off against the New York Yankees, who are crushing the ball to start the season.

After being one of the best offensive units in MLB in 2022, the Yankees are now averaging 6.0 runs per game to start 2023 and have already hit nine homers in their first four games. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres have each gone deep twice already this season.

Strahm will be thoroughly outclassed by Yankees starter Domingo German. While German isn’t a superstar by any means, he threw to a solid enough 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings last year. It’s the third straight year that German has been simply pretty good, and there’s no reason to suspect that will change in his age-30 season.

This game looks like a thorough mismatch. Sure, Philadelphia will play better as the year goes on, and they are a legitimate postseason contender once again in 2023, but there’s no such thing as being due for a win, especially against an excellent team on the road with an unfavorable pitching matchup.

I’m taking the Yankees and giving up some runs to extract some value.

My best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+135 at Caesars)

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Phillies vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees opened tonight’s game as a -141 favorite. The line has only moved further towards New York as bettors have put money on the game, with Yankees now listed as a -155 favorite at most sites. The best odds available on New York at the moment are -149, while you can find +135 on the underdog Phillies.

These two teams have had very different starts to the season. The Yankees couldn’t have hoped for much better, as their offense is firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Meanwhile, the pitching staff is shutting down opposing lineups, having given up just eight runs in total over the first four games of the season. Few teams have had a better all-around start over the first few days of the year.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have had a disastrous start. Philadelphia is the only team in the majors yet to win a game this year, and have been outscored 37-12 over their first four games. The offense has at least shown some signs of life, but has lacked clutch hitting and has only hit one homer early in the season. The one thing the Phillies can hang on to is that they’ve yet to play at home, but that isn’t going to change until Thursday.

As I said above, this all adds up to a mismatch in tonight’s game, especially when you consider that the Yankees clearly have the better of the starting pitchers tonight. I’m recommending a bet on the run line, but I’m obviously leaning towards New York when it comes to moneyline bets as well.

Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 8.5 runs. That total has remained steady throughout the day, though there’s a slight bias towards the Over. You can find as good as +100 on the Under at 8.5, while you’ll have to pay at least -115 to take the Over at the main number.

While the Phillies offense is struggling so far this year, we can’t expect that to last too long. The underlying numbers aren’t awful for Philadelphia, as they’re currently hitting to a .772 OPS, slightly better than the league average of .736. The Phillies were also among the best offenses in the majors last year, scoring 4.61 runs per game.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are just picking up where they left off last season. New York averaged 4.98 runs per game in 2022, the second-best mark in the majors. They’ve now put up 24 runs over the first four games of this season, and still have one of the most intimidating lineups in the majors, especially when you look at the heart of the order. No pitcher wants to stare down Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Stanton back-to-back-to-back, but that’s often the case in the first inning for opposing starters.

With all that in mind, I’m going to lean towards the Over tonight. The Yankees will obviously score runs, but I expect the Phillies to contribute as well, as their run-scoring struggles seem to be as much about bad luck as poor performance.

Phillies vs Yankees game info

Phillies vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Matt Strahm (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Strahm is making his second appearance of the year, having pitched an inning in relief on Opening Day. While Strahm has never primarily been a starting pitcher, he at least took on that role regularly in the 2019 season. Since then, he’s bounced around the league as a bullpen arm, and landed on the Phillies as a free agent during the offseason. While he doesn’t have any particular strengths at the MLB level, Strahm’s value comes more from his versatility than anything else.

Domingo German (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Now in his sixth year with the Yankees, German has become a regular member of the New York starting rotation. While he suffered from shoulder issues last season, he was able to be fairly effective upon his return, going 2-5 with a 3.61 ERA. While German’s fastball velocity and strikeout rate are down since his injury, there were signs he had regained some strength in spring training this year.