Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, Odds

Boston and New York is an ageless rivalry and sports and they meet in a Game 3 showdown on Sunday Night Baseball. This one is too close to call, but our MLB picks expect Brayan Bello to avoid putting people on base with free passes.

One of the great baseball rivalries will conclude a three-game series when the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox tonight.

The pair split the first two of the series, with defense telling the story in this chapter of the rivalry. New York won Saturday's tilt 3-1 and Boston won 3-2 on Friday. Tonight we'll find out who takes the series in front of the prime time lights of Sunday Night Baseball. Will strong pitching continue tonight?

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks for the Red Sox vs. Yankees on Sunday, June 11.

Red Sox vs Yankees odds

Red Sox vs Yankees predictions

There is a consistent belief around baseball that Brayan Bello is close to taking a massive step. The underlying metrics are so-so, but the pitch quality has improved since returning from the minors a month ago. Today he'll have an opportunity to continue that improvement, and I'm targeting him in the MLB player props market as my best bet. 

I'm grabbing Bello Under 1.5 walks as it's the best bet on the board from a value perspective. Getting this at such an attractive price of +115 surprised me, given my projections priced it at around -112. Nevertheless, I'll happily grab it.

Bello's game is predicated on getting chases outside the zone. If you look at the games where he's given multiple free passes, they've generally come against teams that don't chase pitches.

Bello gave out two free passes against the Reds who rank third in walk rate, and two against the Brewers, who rank sixth in chase rate. The only real exception to this rule was when he walked two against the Cleveland Guardians. They chase more pitches than almost anyone in baseball, but there's a huge caveat — they also rank first in chase contact rate by a wide margin. 

Getting pitch chases shouldn't be an issue tonight, and it is one of the key reasons I like this bet. The New York Yankees are slightly below league average in this regard, but it's something that's worsened as of late. A big part of that is the absence of two hitters — Aaron Judge and Harrison Bader — while Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu have struggled at the plate recently.

Whether Bello can take advantage of this or not is inconsequential. We don't care if they are making contact, just that we're getting swings. Recent data suggest we will.

It's also worth mentioning that even before the recent lineup roulette, New York has yet to be a team that walks a ton. On the season, the Yankees have just walked three times per game, a mark that's the sixth lowest in baseball. It's a number that goes down in home games, too, leaving one to theorize they are a little more antsy to make contact in front of their home fans.

As of late, this number has been one of the league's lowest, with just an average of one per game over the last three. With today's bet, we're backing recent trends to continue and getting a reasonable price to do it.

My best bet: Brayan Bello Under 1.5 walks (+115 at DraftKings)

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Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay

Red Sox F5/full-game moneyline

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases

Red Sox to score first

Here are some significantly correlated plays here make up a nice same-game parlay. 

I'm backing the Red Sox to strike first from the simple situational aspect of losing last night, but also because I think they have a decisive pitching advantage. Neither of these teams has been particularly good at scoring early this season, but as we’ll continue to note, the Yankees' offense is in a big-time funk.

I'm throwing Devers to go Over his bases total in here. After an extended slump earlier this season, his Bat has gotten hot in New York with back-to-back home run games. His matchup tonight is a good one, as he has a .579 expected slugging percentage against breaking balls this season — a pitch he should see a good amount of tonight. 

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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I'm taking a stab at the Boston Red Sox on the first five moneyline here for a unit. I got it at -105 over at DraftKings and would take it to -120. 

A big part of this matchup for me is the current form of the pitchers and the particulars surrounding them. One is a young pitcher who has improved steadily over the last month. The other? A pitcher who can be solid but has generally struggled (sans about one start) when facing lineups with power.

I like the upside of Bello here tonight, and I also like his matchup a bit better. Both pitchers have a chase rate that places them in the Top 30% of baseball in that metric. However, the Yankees have chased more this season while making less contact than the Red Sox.

That could be the decisive difference in a fairly even matchup. It also doesn't hurt that the Yankees lineup is banged up without the services of Judge and Bader.

I'm staying away from the total here. When New York and Boston lock horns you'll likely give the Over a look. However, that usually results in inflated numbers that open up more value on the Under. While I don't say that's the case here, this total does align with my projection. 

The Yankees lineup has felt the absence of Judge lately, as it's scored just 2.6 runs in its last three games — a mark that is the fifth worst in MLB. It also hasn't helped that his injury has directly coincided with Anthony Rizzo going through a bit of funk. That leaves me in a spot where I want to avoid touching the game. The Yanks can do their part to get this one Over, but they haven't been good lately. By the same token, I don't trust either of these pitchers on the mound tonight. I'll stay away. 

Red Sox vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.97 ERA): I believe that Bello is turning a bit of a corner. The metrics aren't impressive, and he's been hit pretty hard a few times this season. That said, things of late have been improved from an eye test and a numbers game. Bello looks more confident on the mound and in control of his pitches. Over his last four starts, he's gone 22 combined innings and allowed sevwn earned runs.

Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.96 ERA): We now know what Schmidt is. He's a pitcher that can get through innings, and most of the time, will do enough to give you a chance. With that comes the occasional blow-up game — like when he gave up seven earned runs to the Tampa Bay Rays a few weeks ago. Teams with power in the lineup can generally take advantage of Schmidt's hard-hit issues. He ranks in the Bottom 20 percentile of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. 

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Trend to know

The New York Yankees have the third-fewest average walks per game in baseball over the last three games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees