Pick of the Day: Jessica Pegula vs. Iga Swiatek, WTA Finals

Swiatek was our pick to win the tournament at +260 before it started. The Pole is now a heavy favorite to beat Pegula in the final.

If you read our WTA Finals betting preview, you should be sitting pretty entering the final between Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek. We gave out Swiatek as our best bet to win, so you’d have her at +260 odds in this match. That means you can either sit back and hope the Pole wins with very favorable odds, or you can guarantee yourself a little money by betting the other side and taking Pegula as an underdog. However, we understand that some people are betting specifically on this match and didn’t get to jump on it early. If you’re doing that, I’d strongly suggest betting on Swiatek to cover a small game spread here.

Pegula deserves a ton of credit for what she has done this week. The American went unbeaten in group play, earning straight-set wins over Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari. Then, Pegula absolutely dominated Coco Gauff in the semifinals, earning a 6-2, 6-1 win in just over an hour. All throughout the week, Pegula’s power from both sides of the court has been on full display. And the American has also just stayed solid both mentally and physically, even though all the players in Cancun have expressed their displeasure with the tough conditions. The problem for Pegula is that Swiatek is back to looking a lot like the player that went 67-9 and won eight tournaments in 2022. That version of the Pole is the final boss of women’s tennis, and she happens to be playing with serious motivation here.

With Swiatek having knocked Sabalenka out in the semifinals, the 22-year-old can now finish the year as the world No. 1 by winning this match. That clearly means a lot to the Pole, as it has brought back the best in her game over the last few weeks. Swiatek won a big tournament in Beijing early in October, and she also hasn’t dropped a set in Cancun this week. And the real thing to note when talking about this year’s French Open champion is that her forehand is looking like a real weapon again. There were times this season in which that shot got away from her a bit, as I noticed she’d occasionally lose the range on it. But she is hitting that thing with confidence right now, and she’s also coming up big when it’s her turn to serve. When Swiatek is doing that, she’s nearly impossible to beat.

Swiatek also happens to be 5-3 in the eight career meetings between these two, so she should feel good about her chances of winning this match. Of course, it does need to be noted that Pegula is 2-1 in their three meetings in 2023, but I already mentioned that Swiatek’s game has gotten away from her at times this season. But with her having found it in the last month, it’s just hard not to back her here. And knowing how important this match will be to her only makes it easier to bet on her. Obviously Pegula would like to go out and win this massive event, but Swiatek can put her stamp on the sport entering the 2024 season and I think she’ll do just that.