Pick of the Day: Rafael Nadal vs. Milos Raonic, Indian Wells

Rafa's return to action is one of the tournament's biggest storylines, but he may be in for a battle right off the bat.

Raonic had to retire in the second set of his match against Jannik Sinner in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. That was a match in which Sinner needed a tiebreaker to win the opening set, and the Italian really had no answer for Raonic’s ability to hammer serves. That weapon is the reason Raonic got himself into the quarterfinals to begin with. The reality is that Raonic’s baseline play is worse than ever, and he is one of the slowest movers on tour. But as long as he continues to serve at a high level, he’ll keep himself in matches.

It’s hard to see this match not going to at least one tiebreaker, and it’ll be hard for the Over not to cash if it does. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Nadal edging Raonic in a three-set match, which would also mean good things for Over bettors. For what it’s worth, these two played a tight three-set match against one another in Indian Wells back in 2015, a 4-6, 7-6 (10), 7-5 win for Raonic. Perhaps they’ll turn back time and give us another classic.

Honestly, the only thing I’m worried about is whether both players can make it to the end. But the good news is that most sportsbooks will refund you if you take a total, and one of the players retires.