Picking 2023 over/under win totals for every Big Ten team
It’s always interesting seeing how the betting experts view your favorite team — whether it’s good or bad. For Michigan State, it’s more on the bad side.
Caesars recently released their over/under win totals for the 2023 football season, and it’s clear they aren’t particularly high on the Spartans. For those who are unaware of how over/under bets work, it is essentially a prediction on how many games a team will win in the regular season and bettors can place wagers on whether it’ll be over or under the set win total.
So if the number is on the lower side, then that means your favorite team’s outlook for the season isn’t very good. There are of course other factors in play — such as an easy or tough schedule — that could raise or lower the win total.
Michigan State comes in with one of the lowest win totals in the league, but how low is it? Check out all of the win totals for every Big Ten and my initial picks for each team below:
Win total: 6.5 (-130/+100)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: Illinois lost a number of key pieces off last year’s team that broke through, and I’m not confident they’ll make it past six wins this fall. At Kansas in week two could be the game that ultimately determines if Illinois is able to hit the over.
Win total: 4 (+100/-130)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: Indiana will be battling it out with Rutgers to avoid finishing in last place in the Big Ten East Division this year. Reaching four wins seems highly unlikely unless they can upset Louisville early in the year and go a perfect 3-0 in non conference play.
Win total: 7.5 (-155/+130)
Pick: Over
Reasoning for pick: I’m pretty bullish on the Hawkeyes this year — as long as the offense can actually make some strides. Winning at least eight games seems highly likely for Iowa in 2023.
Win total: 7 (+100/-130)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: Seven wins seems like the perfect win total for the Terps — who should easily win all three of their non-conference games and have winnable crossover matchups with the Big Ten West Division teams. I’m not going to take any pushes, though, so I’m going to take the under since Maryland has yet to win eight regular-season games since joining the Big Ten.
Win total: 10.5 (-120/-110)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: Maybe my biggest surprise in all of these picks is taking the under on Michigan. I have a weird feeling that the Wolverines are finally going to catch a few bad breaks and will drop games at Penn State and home vs. Ohio State for the under to hit.
Win total: 6.5 (-135/+105)
Pick: Over
Reasoning for pick: This total seems to low for Minnesota — who has won at least eight games in the last three full regular seasons (excluding 2020). I’m not sure they’ll hit eight wins again with this schedule, but reaching at least seven wins seems very likely.
Win total: 6.5 (+120/-150)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: This is a tough one because I like Nebraska to at least win six games and reach a bowl game under new head coach Matt Rhule. Getting that seventh win is where I’m having a tough time so I’ll take the under.
Win total: 3.5 (-160/+130)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: Northwestern will enter the 2023 season projected to finish last in the league. The Wildcats haven’t won more than three games in a complete regular season (excluding 2020) since 2018 — so I find it hard to take the over here.
Win total: 10.5 (+110/-140)
Pick: Over
Reasoning for pick: This Ohio State team is too talented to not win the league this year so I’m taking a leap of faith and expecting them to win at least 11 games. It may end up like last year where the Buckeyes finish 11-1 but lose to Michigan and don’t win the conference — but getting to at least 11 wins feels like a safe bet.
Win total: 9.5 (-125/-105)
Pick: Over
Reasoning for pick: Reaching 10 wins for a second straight year seems highly likely when looking at the Nittany Lions schedule. Even if they were to lose to Michigan and Ohio State again this year, they’d still have to stumble somewhere else to not hit the over.
Win total: 5 (-135/+105)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: I think five is a great number for Purdue but again since I’m not taking any pushes, I’ll go with the under. There are a lot of unknowns with the Boilermakers as we enter 2023 and I’m not comfortable predicting they’ll reach a bowl game right now.
Win total: 4.5 (+130/-160)
Pick: Under
Reasoning for pick: This is juiced to make you avoid taking the under but I still don’t see Rutgers finding five wins this year. Finishing 4-8 seems about right for the Scarlet Knights so I’ll gladly take the under on this one.
Win total: 8.5 (-130/+100)
Pick: Over
Reasoning for pick: I like Wisconsin to win the Big Ten West Division in 2023 so hitting the over would have to occur for that to happen. I can see an argument for the under as well since 8-4 is definitely in play but I’ll stick with my gut feeling on the Badgers having a big year one under Luke Fickell.
Win total: 4.5 (-180/+150)
Pick: Over
Reasoning for pick: This feels awfully low for the Spartans, doesn’t it? I understand the optics around the program haven’t been great in the past few months but I find it very unlikely the Spartans don’t at least find five wins next year — regardless of how hard the schedule will be. The under is juiced but I’m confidently hammering the over on this total.
The SpartansWire on Twitter, and like our page on RobertBondy5.
