Pirates-Dodgers prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, July 6

After rallying for a 6-4 win on Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be looking to make it three of four over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday. First pitch of the series finale is set for 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium. The Pirates will hand the ball to young righty Johan Oviedo (3-9, 4.61 ERA), while L.A. goes with Julio Urias (5-5, 4.94) in his second start back from the injured list.

The Dodgers enter as heavy -215 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Pittsburgh as the +185 underdog. The run total is set at 8.5.

Pirates-Dodgers picks: Thursday, July 6

Injury report

Pirates

Out: RP Rob Zastryzny (forearm), RP Jose Hernandez (calf), 2B/OF Ji Hwan Bae (ankle), 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (back)

Dodgers

Out: SP Clayton Kershaw (shoulder), RP Shelby Miller (neck), UTIL Chris Taylor (knee)

Starting pitchers

Johan Oviedo vs. Julio Urias

Oviedo was strong in the month of June, but he got rocked in his last outing, giving up eight runs on nine hits and three walks in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. The righty has a legit slider, but it’s been touch-and-go trying to find another reliable pitch to pair it with. When he’s spotting his four-seam fastball, he can carve up a lineup — he posted a 3.53 ERA in June — but the command isn’t that refined yet, and if it’s off, things can go south in a hurry.

Urias made his long-awaited return from a hamstring injury last weekend in Kansas City, and he looked like a guy who’d been out for almost six weeks. The lefty was knocked around for five runs on six hits and two walks, striking out two in just three innings of work. Urias’ game has always been based on precision — he’s not exactly lighting up the radar gun like other aces of his caliber — and he simply hasn’t been sharp this year, injury or not. That lack of pinpoint command has caused him to get hit hard all season, with his expected ERA, hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage all on pace to set career worsts.

Over/Under pick

The first three games of this series have seen totals of 7, 16 and 10, and I’m banking on another high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Oviedo has been a boom-or-bust pitcher just about all year, and if he doesn’t have his best command, this dangerous Dodgers lineup — L.A. has scored at least five runs in nine of their last 11 — will make him pay. Same goes for Urias; Pittsburgh isn’t totally punchless at the plate, and the lefty is still knocking the rust off in his second start back.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Much as I’m tempted to take the long odds here, Oviedo has been too up-and-down for me to trust, even given Urias’ recent struggles on either side of his IL stint. Los Angeles still has a pretty substantive advantage at the plate and in the bullpen, and they should bag a series win on Thursday night.