Pirates-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 9
Ho-hum, another day, another Ronald Acuna Jr. home run and another Braves win. Atlanta (92-48) busted out the bats again in an easy win against the Pittsburgh Pirates (65-76) on Friday night, and they’ll go for their third straight victory in game two of this three-game series on Saturday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.37 ERA) will get the ball for the Bucs, while Atlanta counters with rookie lefty Dylan Dodd (2-1, 7.40).
The Braves enter as -225 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Pittsburgh at +185. The run total is set at 10.
Pirates-Braves picks: Saturday, September 9
Injury report
Pirates
Out: OF Andrew McCutchen (Achilles), C/OF Henry Davis (hand), SS Oneil Cruz (leg), RP Angel Perdomo (elbow)
Braves
Out: SP Michael Soroka (forearm), RP Collin McHugh (shoulder), SP/RP Yonny Chirinos (elbow), OF Ehire Adrianza (shoulder), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin)
Starting pitchers
Johan Oviedo vs. Dylan Dodd
Oviedo closed out August with a complete-game shutout against the Royals, but he took a step back last time out, giving up five runs (three earned) on four hits and a whopping six walks in just 3.2 innings of work. That was the seventh time in his last 12 starts that the young righty had walked at least three batters, as his control has increasingly become a problem as the year’s gone on. Oviedo’s slider (.210 BA against, 31.8% whiff rate) and curveball (.190, 30%) have been dynamite this year, but when he gets in trouble, it’s typically due to sketchy fastball command and getting behind in too many counts — he’s about as boom or bust as it gets.
With Atlanta’s rotation very much in flux right now, the rookie Dodd will get another crack at starting in the Majors. His first few attempts haven’t gone particularly well: After allowing just one run in five innings in his MLB debut back in early April, the lefty has allowed seven, three, four and five runs in each of his next four starts, the last of which came back in mid-June. The Braves sent him back down to Triple-A at that point, where he’s posted a 6.55 ERA over 14 appearances (13 starts). Dodd is the epitome of the soft-tossing lefty — he generally sits 90-92 with his fastball — but his command hasn’t been nearly good enough to make that work for him at the highest level.
Over/Under pick
Atlanta has scored at least six runs in seven of their last nine games, and they should be all over Oviedo if his command gets at all loose on Saturday. Combine that with Dodd’s struggles so far at the MLB level (and, really, in the high Minors this year), and you’ve got yourself a recipe for an over — Pittsburgh isn’t a world-beater at the plate, but Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Co. should do enough against Dodd to clear this number.
Pick: Over 10
Moneyline pick
There’s hardly any juice on the Braves here, so why not back the Pirates — the only team in this matchup with a starting pitcher who’s proven he can have success in the Majors? Sure, there’s plenty of downside risk — Atlanta could probably get a win with me on the mound — but it’s risk worth taking considering the alternative, and considering the likelihood that Dodd struggles tonight.
