Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Favored to Get #1 Pick

Tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the annual NBA Draft Lottery will take place. This year’s lottery carries more important than usual with generational talent Victor Wembanyana heavily favored to go #1 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft odds.

As per current NBA rules, the teams with the three-worst records in the league all have an equal chance (14%) to get the #1 pick in the lottery.

The table below lists the NBA Draft Lottery odds at DraftKings along with the implied probability of the odds, and the real probability of each team winning the lottery.

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

The Pistons, Spurs, and Rockets are all listed as +550 co-favorites with the Hornets (+650) and Trail Blazers (+800) rounding out the top five.

Odds from DraftKings on May 16, 2023. Claim a DraftKings promo code here.

No Value in NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Seasoned bettors will note that all the options on the board have negative expected value, meaning the real chances of the wager hitting are lower than the implied probability of the odds.

Don’t bother “shopping around”. The odds at FanDuel are identical for the top-five teams and actually slightly worse for the rest of the board.

If you have a free bet and are looking for some entertainment tonight, do as you please. But there is no edge to be had here so it would be unwise to wager real money.

NBA Draft Lottery History

In seven of the last eight lotteries, the #1 pick was won by a team that had the best odds or was tied for the best odds. The only break in that trend game in 2019 when the New Orleans Pelicans won the lottery with just a 6% chance.

The 1993 Sacramento Kings hold the record for winning the lottery with the lowest probability. Sacramento won the 1993 NBA draft lottery with just a 1.57% chance, taking franchise cornerstone Chris Webber in the aftermath.

The 2014 Cavaliers and 2008 Bulls both win the lottery with a 1.7% chance in their respective seasons. While the Bulls won the right to draft Derrick Rose, the Cavs’ reward was a mere Andrew Wiggins.