Victor Wembanyama Stats: Odds For No. 1 NBA Draft Pick
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Every so often, a player with more talent and upside than believed possible comes around. Victor Wembanyama is the most recent example of this phenomenon occurring in basketball.
NBA reporters and insiders labeled the long-legged unicorn as the greatest prospect in NBA draft history. NBA legend LeBron James called Wembanyama “an alien.”
Wembanyama was a near lock to cross the Barclays Center stage before all of his draftmates in 2023. At NBA sportsbooks, he was around -6000 to be the first draft pick in the ‘23 class.
He opened at -2000 in late 2022, but as the weeks and months passed, it was clear there was no stopping Wembanyama’s momentum. When his odds skyrocketed to -6000, oddsmakers no longer allowed fans to wager on any other individual player. There’d be no point.
Instead, you could only take “the field” (+1500) against Wembanyama going No. 1.
Victor Wembanyama Height
Born in the commune of Nanterre northwest of Paris, France, Wembanyama became an internet sensation for his astonishing blend of size, skill, and grace.
According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the one-of-a-kind prospect is 7-foot-5 with shoes on. It was also reported that he has an eight-foot wingspan, which would tie Kevin McHale for the third-longest wingspan in league history. Only Tacko Fall (eight feet, two inches) and Manute Bol (eight feet, six inches) had longer reaches.
Wembanyama could still be growing, but at 7-foot-5 he would be one of the tallest players in history. He’s just one inch shorter than Yao Ming, the tallest player in the NBA Hall of Fame.
Despite his enormous size, he is not an unathletic back-to-the-basket big, nor a clumsy giant that trips over his own feet. He takes defenders off the dribble, creates his own shot with nifty footwork, and pulls up over defenders similar to Kevin Durant.
Wembanyama’s International Stats
In three World Cup qualifying games in 2022-23 with France’s international team, Wembanyama averaged an impressive:
- 20.3 points
- 10.0 rebounds
- 2.7 blocks
- 53.3% three-point percentage
He also posted an NBA-caliber player efficiency rating (PER) of 25.0.
In his home country of France, Wembanyama played for Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92 in LNB Pro A, the top level of basketball in the country.
In more than 20 games, he averaged:
- 22.2 points
- 9.5 rebounds
- 3.1 blocks
- 25.6 PER
For comparison, he was scoring like Paul George, rebounding better than Jusuf Nurkic, blocking more shots than everyone not named Jaren Jackson Jr. and was more efficient than Zion Williamson. Wembanyama also contributed heavily to winning games.
Wembanyama’s game was also translated onto American soi. In summer 2022, his team played a two-game exhibition series against the NBA G League Ignite, giving many Americans their first chance to see him live.
Playing against Scoot Henderson (another top talent in the ‘23 class) and many of America’s other top prospects as well as some NBA veterans, Wembanyama pulled off highlight after highlight. He finished the mini-series with averages of 36.5 points on 50% shooting from the field and from three, including 4.5 three-pointers per game, 7.5 rebounds and 4.5 blocks.
The only way to describe his performance was “unprecedented.”
Victor Wembanyama 2023 Draft Odds
Barring catastrophic injury, Wembanyama was one of the biggest locks to be drafted first overall in league history, and certainly since LeBron.
Betting odds of -6000 to go No. 1 had an implied probability of nearly 98%.
Richard Jefferson, an 18-year NBA veteran who won a championship with LeBron, said that his former teammate would’ve gone second in a draft with Wembanyama.
NBA franchises were salivating at the prospect of landing Wembanyama in the draft. During an interview, Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta said to “Pray for Victor (Wembanyama).” Houston had the worst record in the NBA at the time he made the comment.
Unfortunately for Fertitta, but fortunately for the competitive integrity of the NBA, draft position is not determined solely by the regular-season standings. Instead, teams are assigned a spot in the draft through a lottery, which was instituted in 1985.
The 14 teams that do not qualify for the playoffs are in the lottery. The teams with the three worst records each have a 14% chance of the first pick, and the odds lengthen from there.
The first four positions on the draft board are determined by the lottery, and the remaining 10 spots are filled out in reverse order of their record. That ensures that the team with the worst regular-season record gets no worse than the fifth overall pick, although that could be the difference between a franchise-changing star and a solid role player.
Before the 2020 Draft, the team with the worst record had the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick, and only the top three draft positions were determined by the lottery. Changes were made to discourage teams from “tanking,” or intentionally losing regular-season games.
Who Will Draft Wembanyama?
The Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets were among the favorites to land the top pick in the draft.
Only the three worst teams have a 14% chance of the first pick, as the fourth-worst team’s chances drop to 12.5%. Of those four teams, only one (Detroit in 2021) has had the first overall pick in the last 20 years.
The luckiest team in NBA draft history was the 2007-08 Chicago Bulls. Having finished 11th in the Eastern Conference with a 33-49 record, the Bulls had a 1.7% chance of landing the No. 1 pick. They defied the odds and selected future MVP and Chicago native Derrick Rose.
The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery was scheduled for May 16, 2023 to determine the selection order. The draft itself was slated for the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on June 22.
