Pistons vs Magic Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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03 March 2024

Pistons vs Magic Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Paolo Banchero has ascended his game in year two and has become a focal point to Orlando's success. With the Pistons not posing much trouble on defense, our NBA picks expect Banchero to pile up the points.

A pair of former No. 1 overall picks take the court together this evening in Orlando, but it’s been a drastically different start to their careers. While Cade Cunningham has been wasting away on the lowly Detroit Pistons, Paolo Banchero has elevated the Orlando Magic to playoff contention.

The NBA odds have the Magic as heavy 11-point home favorites against the 9-50 Pistons in a game in which Banchero is poised to flex how good he’s got it compared to Cunningham.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free NBA picks for the Pistons vs. Magic on Sunday, March 3.

Pistons vs Magic odds

Pistons vs Magic predictions

Despite his best efforts, Cade Cunningham hasn’t been able to lift the Detroit Pistons out of the basement on the East. He’s been as advertised, putting up 22.4 points and 7.4 assists in his third year in the NBA, but the support around him has been lacking.

It’s been a different story for the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, with Paolo Banchero making his first All-Star team this season while putting the Orlando Magic in playoff position. Last year’s NBA Rookie of the Year has elevated his game to another level in his sophomore season and has quickly become one of the best young stars in the league.

His play sets him up well to take it to Cunningham and the Pistons on Sunday with Detroit being one of the worst defenses in the NBA. The Pistons are 27th in the NBA in both points allowed (121.1) and defensive rating while being one of the worst teams in the league inside the arc.

Detroit is 28th in the NBA in 2-pointers allowed per game (32) and is allowing opponents to shoot 55.2% from inside the arc. That bodes well for Banchero who can win down low or in the mid-rang. He’s taking 13.5 twos per game and is hitting 48.8% of them.

What makes Banchero such a scary threat though is his willingness to step out and shoot from deep at 6-foot-10, 250 pounds. He’s hitting 36.2% from behind the arc this season on 4.2 threes per game, making defenses have to respect his floor spacing ability. That will make him an even tougher matchup for this Pistons defense that’s allowing teams to shoot 37.7% from three.

The opportunities will be there against this defense for Banchero, especially with his usage. The former Duke star is 15th in the NBA in usage rate (29.2%) among players who have played at least 40 games this season.

He’s earned that high volume, too, with 22.8 points per game this season and scoring at least 21 points in 33 of 58 games this season. While Banchero had missed two games with an illness, he returned against the Utah Jazz on Thursday and finished with 29 points in the win.

My best bet: Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points per game (-120 at bet365)

Pistons vs Magic same-game parlay

Banchero Over 20.5 points

Jalen Suggs Over 1.5 made threes

Cade Cunningham Over 29.5 points+assists

While Banchero has been the catalyst for Orlando’s offense this season, the emergence of Jalen Suggs as a steady contributor and consistent 3-point shooter has played a major role in the Magic's turnaround. Suggs leads the Magic in 3-point attempts (5.2) and makes (2.1) while shooting a career-high 39.2% from deep.

That range will come in handy against a Pistons team that’s been lackluster with their perimeter defense this season. Suggs has hit at least two threes in 32 games this season, including in his last matchup against Detroit.

To counter Banchero and Suggs, Detroit will need Cunningham to bring his best against a top defense. While Orlando gives up minimal points, it is allowing opponents to shoot 54.9% from two and get to the free throw line 23.3 times per game.

That should provide Cunningham with enough opportunities to take advantage, especially with his usage rate ranking 17th in the NBA among players who have played at least 40 games. Cunningham has finished with a combined 30 points and assists in 27 games this season.

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Pistons vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis

Between the Pistons ineptitude this season and the Magic turning a corner, Orlando opened as a 10.5-point favorite. The line has since shifted further in the Magic's direction with Jamahl Mosley’s squad 11 to 11.5-point favorites at most books.

No team in the NBA has been better against the spread this season than Orlando, as the Magic sit first in the NBA with a 39-21 ATS mark and have covered in 11 of the last 15 games. The same can’t be said for the Pistons who are 29-29-1 ATS. Orlando is 2-1 ATS in games against Detroit this season.

The game total opened between 218 and 220 with Detroit’s offensive struggles and Orlando’s defensive prowess being a big reason why. Most books have settled in with the game total at 218.5. The Magic haven’t been a great Over bet this season going 28-31-1 with the Pistons being slightly better at 30-28-1. The Over has yet to hit in three games between these two this season.