Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning odds, picks and predictions
The Pittsburgh Penguins (11-10-3) take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (11-10-5) Wednesday at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Penguins vs. Lightningodds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Pens have lost 2 in a row and 3 of 4 — all in overtime or via shootout. The lone win during that stretch was a 4-2 victory last Thursday in Tampa. C Sidney Crosby had a goal in that game, and he has 15 on the season. He's on pace to tie his career high of 51 goals in 2009-10.
The Bolts snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 4-0 revenge game against the Dallas Stars Monday. The Stars destroyed the Lightning 8-1 two days before, and Tampa never looked back. The Lighting are a different team at home at 7-3-3.
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Penguins at Lightning odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.
Penguins at Lightning projected goalies
Tristan Jarry (8-8-2, 2.47 GAA, .918 SV%, 3 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2-3-0, 3.03 GAA, .887 SV%, 1 SO)
Jarry was between the pipes Saturday for the overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. He stopped 31 of 34 shots he faced. Before that, he stopped 39 of 41 Tampa fired at him, and Jarry managed to score the 1st-ever Penguins goal by a goalie in the 4-2 W.
"Vasy" looked more like himself in the shutout of the Stars Monday, stopping all 25 shots. This came after he was pulled Saturday when he allowed 6 goals on 25 shots in 2 periods. He's still one of the best goalies in the league when he's right, and he has been a little shaky as he kicks the rust off following back surgery.
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Penguins at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Penguins 3, Lightning 2
The Pens are short dogs on the road, but this game is a pick 'em. The Penguins have won 5 straight against the Bolts, and 3 of those came in Tampa. The Lightning could have a bit of a hangover effect after they restored their pride against Dallas. It would not surprise me at all if Tampa won, but for as close of a call as it is, I'll take the value with PENGUINS +110.
I'm not interested in either puck line. I will take STEVEN STAMKOS OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL (-165). He had 5 SOG in the previous meeting with Pittsburgh and 3+ in 2 of 3 meetings last season.
The Pens are 7-15-2 O/U on the year, and the Bolts are 12-12-2. Tampa's line is inflated because of the porous goaltending the Bolts have received while Vasilevskiy was out, and while he has kicked off the rust, 6 of the last 10 meetings between these teams have had 6 or fewer goals.
I'm a little surprised to see this line at 6.5. Take the UNDER 6.5 (-110).
