Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas MLS Odds, Picks and Predictions June 11

FC Dallas and Portland tend to play tight early, then open things up late. That's why our free betting picks are looking at most of the offensive action for this game coming later than sooner.

With the season halfway over, the Portland Timbers will hope to work their way into the playoff discussion as they host FC Dallas on Sunday night.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Timbers, but they hope the match with FC Dallas will bring about a sense of normalcy: Dallas has won just once in their last six visits to Providence Park, and MLS odds rightly have Portland installed as the home favorite.

However, my free betting pick for this prime-time matchup aren't focusing on either side — I'm looking at when you can expect to see some offensive action in a matchup between two teams battling for playoff positioning.

I'll dive into breaking down this game — and giving my best MLS bet — with my Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas picks and predictions for Sunday, June 11.

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas best odds

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas picks and predictions

Betting MLS can be infuriating at times.

You can do all your analysis and play your bet, and then none of it matters because a team suddenly decides to win on the road for the first time in ages or a team simply lays an egg...  or sometimes you have the analysis exactly right and the result simply doesn’t come.

That’s what we had last week when we previewed the Portland Timbers' match against Seattle: Our best bet was that there would be more goals scored in the second half than in the first... and while it may feel a bit lazy to repeat a wager, sometimes the way a team is playing lends itself to doing just that — and the numbers from last Sunday back up why this is a terrific opportunity to do so again.

In Portland’s 0-0 draw with Seattle, there were a total of 16 shots attempted between the two sides. Ten of those 16 came after halftime and, more importantly, all three efforts on goal came in the second half. Portland did what they’ve done much of the season — kept things tight at the back and opened up as the match went along.

Why is that important? Because FC Dallas feeds into the same type of play.

Their 2-0 win over St. Louis CITY on Wednesday featured a pair of goals in the final 10 minutes of regulation, but it also followed a somewhat stagnant opening half. The 24 shots in the match were evenly distributed between the two halves, but only three reached the goalkeeper in the opening 45 minutes — and none of them were high-quality chances.

When FC Dallas visits your stadium, it’s best to stay until the final whistle: Their eight away fixtures have featured 16 goals, 10 of which have come in the second half. And of those six first-half goals, only one has come in their last four away matches. More impressively, FC Dallas have scored a goal in the 89th minute or later in each of their last three road matches.

The Toros got a taste of that very medicine when they hosted Portland earlier this season, as the Timbers escaped Toyota Stadium with a 1-1 draw on the back of a 91st-minute equalizer. That was the second of two goals after halftime with — you guessed it — no goals scored in the opening period.

This rivalry has a history of late fireworks, especially at Providence Park. There have been five goals scored in regulation in the past three meetings there — and they’ve all come after the 80th minute.

Stick with the second half to feature the most goals, and hope the MLS gods aren’t cruel to us again this week.

My best bet: Half with the most goals - Second (+112 at FanDuel)

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Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas side analysis

Portland will be happy to be at home, where they are clearly favored on the 3-way money line. Not only have they fared well against Dallas over recent years, but they’ve taken 11 points at Providence Park, against just six points on the road.

Their injury list coming into the match is extensive, with midfielder Felipe Mora out, while Yimmi Chara is doubtful with a hamstring issue. Making matters worse: Defender Claudio Bravo will be suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card.

Dallas has won just once at Providence Park in their 12 regular-season visits, and that win came seven years ago. They also have just two wins this season away from home this season, despite conceding only nine goals in eight away matches.

They’ve managed to score just seven themselves, and have yet to have a multi-goal performance on the road. They’ll be glad to see Paul Arriola and Sebastian Lletget back in the lineup after both returned on Wednesday night.

The loss of Bravo is a big one for Portland, but Chara’s absence is the real difficult one to overcome. Without them, Portland would be missing two of their top tacklers and while Portland hasn’t lost much to Dallas at home, there have been quite a few draws in the series.

Dallas has gotten a result in three of their last five visits, and with Portland having won just one of their last four at home in all competitions, I like Dallas to get at least a point — but not enough to bet on it at -140.

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Over/Under analysis

The total of 2.5 goals is fairly evenly split on both sides, but if history is any indicator... the Under is more likely to come through.

Two or fewer goals have been scored between these two sides in the last six outings at Providence Park — a stark contrast to their meetings in Dallas, where the Over has hit in four of the last five.

Portland have scored 11 goals in seven home matches while conceding seven times. The Timbers have been in some shootouts at home this year, with six of their nine matches in all competitions featuring at least three goals.

Dallas has only scored seven times in their eight away fixtures, conceding nine times. The Under has come through in five of their eight away matches, including two of the last three.

Personally, I’m staying away from the Total in this one. These two teams have plenty of firepower but they tend to play tight until late. The total likely comes down to how good their chances are in the second half, and with both teams the type to go for broke if losing, it’s too risky to play it either way.

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas game info

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas key injuries

Portland Timbers: Felipe Mora M (Out), David Ayala M (Out), Claudio Bravo D (Out), Yimmy Chara M (Doubtful).
FC Dallas: Tarik Scott F (Out), Ema Twumasi D (Doubtful).

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas weather

Sunday night’s match should a wonderful evening for football: Temperatures in the upper 70s will fade into the 60s after sundown, plus there’s no rain at all in the forecast.