Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Portland closed the first quarter with a lead, but it was short lived after they were outscored by 15 in the 2nd. The Blazers shot 40% from the floor and limited Utah to just under 21% from long range, but the Blazers finished -16 in the rebound battle. Malcolm Brogdon and Shaedon Sharpe both finished with 25, and Deandre Ayton added a double-double.

Portland comes into this contest averaging 105.2 points per game, which lands them at 30th in the league. The Blazers have struggled to get much going in terms of offensive success in large part because they have struggled to generate points down low. Portland sits amongst the bottom in the NBA with under 45 paint points scored per game. Along with that, Portland has not demonstrated a strong value of the basketball. The Blazers are turning it over at one of the highest rates in basketball, and sit at the bottom of the NBA in assist rate. Unfortunately, things haven't been too much better from long range. While the Blazers are hanging around league average in terms of 3-pointers fired per game, they sit bottom three as right around 33% of their shots from downtown connect. One benefit of having an inconsistent scoring offense is the opportunity to snag missed shots. Portland has been able to execute this tailwind, which has resulted in the Blazers garnering second chance points and additional free throw tries.

On the defensive end of the court, Portland is allowing 111.9 points per game, this is good for 10th in the league. Similar to the woes of the offense in the key, the Blazers defense has been able to get consistent stops down low and are allowing over 56 points in the paint per game as a result. Portland has been able to shut down the perimeter slightly better, though. With right around nine steals per game, Portland is 3rd in the league and this ability to poke the ball away has disrupted opponents when around the arc. While Portland hasn't been sending opponents to the line all that often, the Blazers have struggled closing out possessions and opponents have found success snatching second chance points.

Golden State largely dominated the entirety of their matchup with the Clippers, and even saw their lead swell to 18 at one point. However, down the stretch, the Warriors were unable to get key stops and ultimately were dealt a game sealing 3-pointer. Golden State shot nearly 40% from long range, but turned the ball over 15 times. Three starters ended the game with at least 20 points, and Stephen Curry led the way with his 22 point, 11 assist performance.

Golden State comes into this contest averaging 114.8 points per game, which lands them at 12th in the league. The Warriors have scored in the paint at the lowest rate in all of basketball. Ordinarily this would be a huge headwind for a squad, and the Warriors have sacrificed high percentage shots - but the Warriors share the ball at arguably the best rate in the league and this has allowed them to find sustained success outside of the painted area. As is so often the case with this offense, the 3-point parity remains the bread and butter. The Warriors currently sit right around league average in 3-point percentage, but are 4th in the league with nearly 40 attempts per game. Even with a lack of presence in the painted area, the Warriors have remained a top 10 offensive rebounding team, which continues to add to their success offensively. The drawback with the Golden State offense continues to be in which the pace they play. The high octane offense is subject to high turnovers, and the Warriors haven't escaped that here.

On the defensive end of the court, the Warriors are allowing 114.5 points per game, which lands them at 20th in the league. The pant defense has been right around average for the Warriors as they are giving up just under 50 per game. Just as the offense has been lethal from long range, the Warriors defense has been pesky around the perimeter and are currently holding opponents to under 35% from downtown, which is good for top 10 in the league. The Warriors haven't been able to force turnovers that consistently, which does hinder their quick-action offense at times, but it becomes more important when we also see that they struggle closing out possessions consistently. If Golden State is unable to force turnovers or keep the Blazers off the offensive glass, it could get tough here for the Warriors at home.

Best Bets

The Warriors sit among the top half of the league in terms of pace and the Blazers have tended to play a bit quicker when they are on the road. The Blazers offense has struggled to find consistency in the key, but they've been able to pull down quite of a few of their misses and I expect them to get the better of Golden State on some second chance tries here. The Blazers have also been one of the better free throw shooting teams in the league, which should add some points to the number here as the Warriors foul at one of the highest rates in the NBA. Take the over.