Potential Damian Lillard trade to Heat odds fallout: Sportsbooks adjusting, Miami would remain longshot on 2024 NBA title futures per proven model

After years and years of playing the loyal soldier, Portland Trail Blazers All-Star guard Damian Lillard, arguably the best player in franchise history, has finally requested a trade and would prefer to be routed to the Miami Heat – about as far from Portland as he can get in the NBA. The SportsLine Projection Model has forecasted the 2023-24 Heat with the addition of Lillard, at the cost of Tyler Herro and a few others via a trade, and Miami's title odds only rise 3.5%.

Lillard, who will be 33 this week, has two years left and around $94 million left on his contract, having already exercised his 2024-25 player option. He had a career year last season, averaging 32.2 points and 7.3 assists per game. Yet Lillard played just 58 games as he sat out the final month. The seven-time All-Star ranks first in Blazers history in both points and 3-pointers and second in assists.The team believes it has his long-term replacement in rookie No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson. 

Lillard's preference is to be traded to the Heat. while also previously listing respect for the likes of the Nets and Spurs. It's no surprise the Heat are his top choice, as they are one of the NBA's top destinations for stars because of the social life in Miami, the lack of state income taxes, and the team being run so well. The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson wrote that Lillard remains "resolute and adamant that Miami is the only place he wants to play." 

When talking about the potential of playing for the Heat via trade, Lillard said on a recent podcast: "Miami is the obvious one. Bam [Adebayo] is my dog. Bam is my dog for real. But I mean I think Miami is the obvious one."

Any Heat package to Portland will begin with Herro, and potentially Duncan Robinson as well because the Blazers likely wouldn't want Kyle Lowry. Miami would have to kick in draft picks and perhaps young player Nikola Jovic.

After losing Gabe Vincent (Lakers) and Max Strus (Cavs) in free agency, the SportsLine Projection Model dropped Miami to a projected 42.7 wins for next season and just a 1.5% shot of winning it all.

With Lillard in the fold and the assumed cost of Herro and more, the Heat rise to 46.1 wins and a 5.0% shot of winning it all. That equates to +1900. BetMGM dropped the Heat from +1600 to +900 to win the 2024 NBA title following the Lillard trade request. Portland doesn't have to send Lillard to Miami, but will want to do right by its franchise icon. Getting him out of the Western Conference would be an added benefit. 

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