Preakness Stakes 2023: Updated Saturday Odds, Best Bets, And How National Treasure, Perform And Blazing Sevens Can Take Down Mage
The 2023 Preakness underwent its own race-changing last-minute scratch on Friday — eerily like the preceding Kentucky Derby losing Forte on race day — in the form of 2nd-favored contender First Mission's left hind foot giving him, and trainer Brad Cox, enough problems to trigger the withdrawal. And, like Forte's withdrawal, it will change the complexion of the race completely, throwing the challenge of taking down Mage squarely on the shoulders of Baffert-trained National Treasure, Chad Brown-trained Blazing Sevens, Shug McGaughey-trained Perform, and Steve Asmussen-trained Red Route One.
With First Mission out of the running, it does open the race for the middle of the pack. Given their styles and recent works, of the four, in no particular order, National Treasure, Perform, and Blazing Sevens seem to have more of the tool kit necessary to beat Mage than does Red Route One. Following the morning line, National Treasure seems to have the best shot at Mage. But he likes to be up front, and the question for him is whether he can keep enough fuel in the tank to stave off a big run from the favorite.
Before we get into some of the more highly torqued betting tactics this Preakness will demand, herewith, an odds and post position refresher.
(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Morning Line)
1. National Treasure, Bob Baffert, 4-1
2. Chase the Chaos, Ed Moger Jr., 50-1
3. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, 8-5
4. Coffeewithchris, John Salzman Jr., 20-1
5. Red Route One, Steve Asmussen, 10-1
6. Perform, Shug McGaughey, 15-1
7. Blazing Sevens, Chad Brown, 6-1
8. First Mission, Brad Cox, 5-2 (SCRATCH)
(Source: Pimlico, 5/20/2023)
The short field of runners amplifies the limelight on each of the more favored horse and allows players to dig deeper into the detail on them. We'll be able to watch the money migrate and build its inevitable choppy sea as it moves to and fro from First Mission to National Treasure and Blazing Sevens and then back around to Mage and Perform. Bottom line: Foul betting weather ahead, make sure your wallet is lashed with you to the mast.
To help us weather the storm, we call as usual upon the Bluegrass Wise Man, a lifelong Kentucky horseman who has been so generous with his deep barnside knowledge in Triple Crown seasons past.
Do you see anything that Mage and his team have to do differently now that First Mission has been scratched?
Bluegrass Wise Man: Not so much. Still gotta break, still gotta run the race, and still gotta win. To do that, he has to start his run to give himself a little more room than he had in the Derby. In the Derby, that last hundred yards of his was good, not trying to take away from him. But it was a bit of a cliffhanger. This is a slightly shorter race than ours in Kentucky, not by much. Still, the Preakness gives you less room to bring a run if you are a deep closer like Mage. He's proven he has some tactical skill, so he has a leg up. It's why he's the favorite. But today, there's gonna be a lot for him to do out there, and he's gotta get it all done in a sixteenth of a mile less.
Let us address the elephant in the room, the Baffert effect.
Bluegrass Wise Man: Big race for Bob today. There's a set of reasons, beyond just dumb luck of attracting or being given fine horses, that Bob is one of two trainers in history who have won this race seven times. If he wins it this afternoon, he will be the only trainer in history with eight Preakness wins. Bob is a master at figuring out what horses like, and what they can do with what they like. He's had that since he was a boy on his dad's ranch, and he deepened it when he started racing quarter-horses. It's about being able to see an athlete's tool kit and being able to match that with a race that suits that tool kit. So here is the point: Any horse Bob Baffert brings to the Preakness is filtered through that deeper vision and will be guided by that hand. You can't put a value on it, but we can say you'd better bet with that, not against it.
Uhhh, last I checked, his horse still has to win the race. What does National Treasure have to do to get that done?
Bluegrass Wise Man: Run faster than Mage, isn't that usually the way they do it? Look, everybody knows that Mage likes to bring it late and is a deep closer, so if you are National Treasure, or anybody, what you need to do is get in position and be ready for those last two furlongs. There are two ways to do it. First way is to be further out front than Mage can reach, and with enough gas to stay out front when he comes at you. The other way to do it is to bide your time in the middle of the pack and then make your move slightly before he makes his. You're betting everything on a duel there. Either way is tricky, and damn difficult.
Tell us a little about Blazing Sevens.
Bluegrass Wise Man: Blazing Sevens does scare me. Chad Brown won the race last year. While the colt does not seem to have the form he did last year, he is training great. He makes me nervous for sure and he has Irad up. What I'm saying is, the field is a short one, but don't let that fool you. It's going to be highly tactical, so having a champion jock like one of the Ortiz brothers is really going to matter out there. Brown and Blazing Sevens are lucky, and as a combo, Brown and Ortiz are formidable. Use 'em in your exotics, is my advice, or lose out.
Time to go to the crystal ball and tell us what the race is gonna look like.
Bluegrass Wise Man: You know, we can be surprised. Mage may be closer to the front than is normal for him, up there with the rest of them. I see National Treasure making the lead and everyone else chasing. Perform has never run in a graded stakes, so he's making a step up. He would not make the Derby field and these are supposed to be Derby horses right? But I think he will be running along with Mage. Maybe in his hip pocket. I simply think they will all be close and the race will be about who can run down National Treasure from the top of the stretch.
We're just a few hours from post time. Any other surprises you could imagine?
Bluegrass Wise Man: Really it's wide open. I can also see it being a sort of 'pedigree' trifecta sired by Good Magic with Mage, Blazing Sevens and Perform. I am sure the folks at Hill n’ Dale Farm, who bred them all, would love that.
