Preakness winner National Treasure could go gate to wire again in Belmont
It looks like Saturday’s Belmont Stakes in New York, the third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, will go on as scheduled if the air quality from the Canadian wildfires subsides enough to cooperate.
Belmont Park canceled its Thursday card, the beginning of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, because of the unhealthy air quality conditions, but New York Racing Association President and CEO Tom O’Rourke is optimistic that racing will resume Friday with five stakes races.
“Safety is paramount as we navigate this unprecedented situation,” he said in a press release. “NYRA will actively monitor all available data and weather information as we work toward the resumption of training and racing both here at Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course. Based on current forecast models and consultation with our external weather services, we remain optimistic that we will see an improvement in air quality on Friday.”
Continued improvement is what trainer Bob Baffert and jockey John Velazquez, a pair of Hall of Famers, hope to see from Preakness winner National Treasure in Saturday’s nine-horse field for the Belmont. Forte, last year’s 2-year-old male champion who was scratched the day of the Kentucky Derby, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.
As a 2-year-old, National Treasure showed great promise. The son of Quality Road, who Velazquez also rode, won his debut at Del Mar by 1½ lengths on Sept. 3, finished second behind the ultra-talented Cave Rock in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita on Oct. 8 and was third behind Forte and Cave Rock in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile a month later.
National Treasure’s first two races this year were respectable – a third-place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 8 and then a fourth-place showing in the Santa Anita Derby on April 8 – but nowhere near what we could have expected by examining his juvenile resume.
Finally, in the Preakness, with blinkers added, the National Treasure I believed would be among the top 3-year-olds of 2023 surfaced. He went gate to wire to beat six others and he could do the same on Saturday. Forget the fact the Belmont, because of its 1½-mile distance, is termed “Test of the Champion,” and that many believe the longer distance favors horses from off the pace.
That couldn’t be further from the truth. Many horses have gone gate to wire to win the Belmont, including American Pharoah and Justify during their Triple Crown glory. Horses with tactical early speed are the best to bet in the Belmont and, other than National Treasure, there’s no early speed in this year’s race except for perhaps Il Miracolo, a son of Gun Runner who has been beaten by a total of 73½ lengths in his four tries at graded stakes.
What does Velazquez, who has been aboard National Treasure in all six of his races and knows him as well as anyone, say?
“Seems like he finally put it together, did what he needs to do (in the Preakness),” Velazquez said during a teleconference for the racing media. “He’s a horse that’s a little bit spotty, but I think the addition of blinkers helps him concentrate a little bit better. He showed that in the Preakness.”
National Treasure has two wins from six starts with a second-place finish and two third-place finishes for earnings of $1.3 million. Baffert has proven he knows the recipe for success in winning the final two legs of the Triple Crown. In addition to American Pharoah and Justify, he also turned the trick with Point Given, perhaps one of his most underrated horses.
My money’s on National Treasure to go gate to wire on Saturday and give Baffert his 18th victory in a Triple Crown race. It would also give Velazquez, who won his first Preakness this year, his third Belmont victory. Velazquez is hoping National Treasure has turned the corner and become the horse many believed he could be.
“We always thought he was a very talented horse,” Velazquez said. “He just needed to figure it out and put it together. Finally, he seems to have put it together in the Preakness. I think he has come into himself now … he’s still a baby. He’s still finding his way, basically.”
None of Saturday’s nine starters have ever gone a mile and a half and most will never run that far again. Velazquez said he’s unsure how National Treasure will handle it.
“I just know that this horse, every race he runs, he gallops out pretty strong,” Velazquez said. “If we can manage to get him a good rhythm, that is we try to save the best we can for the last part of the race, we’ll be in good shape.”
Let’s try a win ticket on National Treasure and exactas with him on top to Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice. The return won’t be enough to retire and buy a beachfront home in Cardiff-by-the-Sea, but we’ll finish in the black.
The Belmont field, in post position order, with jockeys and odds:
1. Tapit Shoes, Jose Ortiz, 20-1
2. Tapit Trice, Luis Saez, 3-1
3. Arcangelo, Javier Castellano, 8-1
4. National Treasure, 5-1, John Velazquez
5. Il Miracolo, 30-1, Marcos Meneses
6. Forte, 5-2, Irad Ortiz Jr.
7. Hit Show, 10-1, Manny Franco
8. Angel of Empire, Flavien Prat, 7-2
9. Red Route One, Joel Rosario, 15-1.
