Which horse will celebrate Secretariat’s golden anniversary with a win at Belmont?

Fifty years ago magic struck Belmont Park.

It was 50 years ago this week that Secretariat won his Triple Crown by an astounding 31 lengths, in a preposterously fast 2 minutes and 24 seconds, to lock in his place in legend as the greatest thoroughbred race horse who ever lived.

It was 50 years ago this week that race turned an impressionable 10-year-old boy in suburban Philadelphia – me – into a horse racing fan, and I am sure I wasn’t the only one.

Since that epic Saturday in 1973, just four other horses have won the Triple Crown – Affirmed, Seattle Slew, American Pharoah and Justify. While they are all magnificent champions – especially Affirmed, who had a fierce rival in Alydar – none match Secretariat. Perhaps only Man O’War and Citation are even close.

It’s certain that there will be no equals to Secretariat when the 155th Belmont Stakes goes off at 7:02 p.m. Saturday (FS1; streaming on Fox Sports app).

But it could easily be the best race of the 2023 Triple Crown series, even if, for the fifth straight year, there’s no Triple Crown at stake (what is at stake is a nice $1.5 million purse, $900,000 to the winner; even eighth place gets $15,000).

The Belmont certainly boasts a better field than the Preakness, and we find a nine-horse bunch produces less chaotic, and sometimes less capricious, races than the 20-horse Kentucky Derby does.

And it’s looking as if the hideous plume of wildfire smoke that smothered the Northeast over the last week will be mostly gone by post time. Thank goodness.

The Belmont is always better with a Triple Crown at stake (though it’s mercifully less crowded at the park when it’s not), but Saturday’s race should still be compelling and may well give us the likely 3-year-old of the year.

Over our history of handicapping Triple Crown races, we have always done best at the Belmont. That’s because, we think, breeding matters more in this race than the others – breeding for distance, in this case.

That’s because the Belmont, at 1 and ½ miles, is longer than the Derby (1¼) or Preakness (1 3/16) – indeed longer than almost any other race thoroughbreds ever run. Railbirds will go a long time between getting to bet at 1½ miles. The distance is part of the oddity and the charm of the Triple Crown – it’s a test, the Test of Champions as they like to say on Long Island – but it’s also like asking Mariano Rivera to bat in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded in a 2-2 Game 7 of the World Series.

Perhaps because of the distance, the Belmont has seen some stunning upsets of what looked like sure-thing Triple Crown horses. Birdstone over Smarty Jones in 2004 comes to mind, as does Victory Gallop over Real Quiet in 1998. So bettors, beware (but also remember if you bet with us on the last two races you cashed a ticket).

In looking for that distance breeding, we often turn to horses sired by Tapit, who was superb at distance.

But this year, there are six horses entered who count Tapit as their sire, including two named for him, the No. 1 horse, Tapit Shoes and the No. 2, Tapit Trice.

So a bit more analysis is needed other than “Just follow the Tapit breeding line.”

Of the nine entries, you can toss No. 5, Il Miracolo (30-1 morning line). “Miracolo” Is Italian for miracle, which is what this underwhelming runner will need to hit the board. He’s lost four graded stakes by a combined 70 lengths.

Despite his heritage, we don’t think Tapit Shoes (20-1) really belongs either. Trainer Brad Cox, who has three entries in the race, might be hoping his early speed can get him out front and perhaps allow a wire-to-wire upset win. Not likely.

But Tapit Shoes’ early speed might well have a huge impact on Preakness winner National Treasure (5-1), who benefited from a sluggish (at best) early pace at Pimlico. There’s no way the other jockeys will let that happen again. National Treasure still has the class and talent to win the race, though, and Bob Baffert at 5-1 is certainly always attractive. He should be in a lot of exotics.

So should Tapit Trice (3-1). Trainer Todd Pletcher won this race last year with Mo Donegal, one of his three Belmont winners – and he has seven runner-up finishes! Tapit Trice should have no issues with the distance, and all three of Pletcher’s Belmont wins have come when the horse ran the Derby and skipped the Preakness, as Tapit Trice did.

The worry with Tapit Trice is his penchant for very slow starts. He has to break better than he did at Churchill Downs. If he does, he wins. But a big if.

Pletcher also has the favorite, Forte (3-2), who’s won six of his seven starts including the Florida Derby and the Breeders Cup Juvenile. But he’s raced just twice since the Breeders Cup back in November 2022 (he was a late scratch at the Derby) and that long of a layoff may not bode well, especially at distance.

The Schuylkill County-bred Angel of Empire (7-2) was our pick at the Kentucky Derby where he was third with a late rally. He can handle the distance and his style suits the race. Cox is adding blinkers to help settle the horse.

Red Route One (15-1) makes for an attractive bottom of a superfecta, perhaps, but pure closers often struggle at the Belmont – it’s a very long stretch. He can handle the distance, though and if he can stay close to the pack, might hit the board.

The third of Cox’s horses is Hit Show (10-1), fifth in the Derby, but he was third at one point. He’s a popular choice among experts, for what that is worth, and offers value.

Then there’s Arcangelo (8-1), another Tapit-bred, whose trainer, Jena Antonucci, is making her Triple Crown debut and is just the 11th woman to have a horse race in the Belmont Stakes. Arcangelo is very lightly raced – just four races, fewest in the field – but won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont in May.

There’s a lot of quality here, and it makes handicapping harder. Seven horses seem like realistic shots to win.

The 155th Belmont may not have a Secretariat in it, but it could wind up being a race worthy of the great horse, who dazzled us all 50 years ago.

Brad Wilson’s picks: 1. Tapit Trice, 2. Hit Show, 3. Angel of Empire.

Recommended exotics: This is a race to get the wheel out and wheel in any of the seven contenders at the bottom of exactas and trifectas below your chosen favorites. National Treasure should be on a lot your exotics, even if we didn’t pick him in our top 3. Forte maybe at the bottom of trifectas. We have a hunch about Arcangelo, enough to bet him, perhaps, but not pick him. Good race for box betting.

Throw $2 on: Arcangelo (8-1).

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