Predicting Every Year-End UFC Champ for 2024

Almost nobody could have imagined Sean Strickland would be the UFC middleweight champion at the end of 2023. There's no question that he's always been good, but like most fighters in the division, he seemed to be a step behind the former champ Israel Adesanya.

At UFC 293 in September, Strickland scored a lopsided decision win over Adesanya and will close out the year as the division's champion.

We're bound to see more shake-ups like Strickland's shock title win over Adesanya in 2024. If that fight was a reminder of anything, it was that no champion, no matter how dominant, is safe in a sport like MMA. While some of our current champions may still hold their titles by this time next year, it's more than likely that a few of them will suffer Adesanya's fate.

Keep scrolling for our best predictions for the champion of each UFC weight class by the end of 2024.

The UFC heavyweight division is currently ruled by two men: undisputed champ Jon Jones, and interim champ Tom Aspinall. You'd be hard-pressed to find a fight fan who doesn't expect one of them to sit on the throne by this time next year. The big question seems to be which one.

We're leaning toward Aspinall.

While Jones is widely considered the greatest fighter in MMA history, he has fought just once in the last three years, defeating Ciryl Gane by submission to claim the vacant title in a very favourable matchup earlier this year. That win was also the former light heavyweight champion's first as a heavyweight.

Aspinall, meanwhile, has been very active against the best heavyweights in the world, and beating them. At 30, he's also six years Jones' junior, with the size, speed and athleticism to rival any fighter in the division's history.

It will take nothing from Jones' legacy, but Aspinall is the heir apparent.

Alex Pereira claimed the vacant light heavyweight title with a knockout of Jiri Prochazka at UFC 295 this month.

His future as the champion seems to hinge on whether his next few opponents will be able withstand his knockout striking and drag him to the canvas, where he is still a bit of a novice.

It's very hard to say if that will happen. Former champion Jamahal Hill, who is expected to be next for a title shot, could definitely grapple Pereira to a win. No. 3 contender Magomed Ankalaev potentially has an even better shot of taking Pereira out of his comfort zone to steal the title.

However, Pereira's grappling seems to be improving quite a bit from fight to fight, and he clearly carries his knockout power into the later rounds, which means he's still capable of winning fights even when he's down on the scorecards.

We're not super confident about this one, but we're guessing Pereira survives a few tough rounds against whomever he fights next year and finds a way to hang on to the title.

As incredible as Sean Strickland's September title win over Israel Adesanya was, you're not going to find many fans who expect him to hold the title for years to come. We've already seen him lose to many of the middleweight division's top contenders, and some of them quite recently, such as Jared Cannonier.

However, we're still picking Strickland to keep the title through 2024, and that's based purely on the contenders we expect him to fight.

We already know that he'll kick off the year with a title defense against No. 2 ranked South African Dricus Du Plessis. That's a very tough fight, but Strickland's relentless pressure, high-volume striking and limitless gas tank should overwhelm the power-punching challenger.

Beyond that, it's not clear who Strickland will fight next, but the most likely option is probably Khamzat Chimaev, who is at most just one win away from a title shot. We also like Strickland in that potential fight. In fact, it's arguable Strickland was tailor-made to beat a guy like Chimaev, who tends to start fast but fade down the stretch.

If Strickland ends up rematching Cannonier or fighting somebody like Robert Whittaker, his chances of keeping the title will plummet, but it looks like he'll spend most of next year in more favorable matchups, so we'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Predicting the welterweight champion by the end of 2024 is a tall order.

The first problem is that champion Leon Edwards faces a very tricky style matchup in Colby Covington at UFC 296 next month. While his recent wins over Kamaru Usman were proof that he can deal with a hard-charging wrestler like Covington, it's very possible he will lose this fight.

Whether it's Edwards or Covington who closes out 2023 as the champion, they will have their work cut out for them in 2024.

If there is any justice left in this cruel world, the first crack at the winner will go to Belal Muhammad, who deserved a title shot one or two wins ago but has thus far been deprived of the opportunity. He'd likely be an underdog against both Edwards and Covington, but also has the chops to beat both.

Then there's Kazakhstan's Shavkat Rakhmonov. He's been climbing the welterweight ranks very quickly over the last couple of years and will take what looks like his final test before a title shot in the form of Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson on the same night Edwards fights Covington.

If he wins, it will only reaffirm what many fans already believe: That he's a future champ.

File us into that group. Rakhmonov is the real deal, and we're picking him to beat whomever comes out on top among Edwards, Covington and Muhammad at the end of next year.

We don't need to spend a lot of time on this one.

Islam Makhachev defended the lightweight title twice in 2023, both times against featherweight champ and pound-for-pound great Alexander Volkanovski. It's not 100 percent certain who he'll fight next, but the choice seemingly comes down to Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje, and whomever is asked to wait will most likely be next in line.

Makhachev has never been super active, so those will probably be his only fights of 2024, and he should win both. He submitted Oliveira to win the title in 2022, after all, and there's no reason to assume he can't beat the Brazilian again. Gaethje is certainly a tough challenge, but we saw him lose to a very similar fighter in Makhachev's mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov just a few years ago.

It's by no means a certainty, but Makhachev seemingly has the best shot of keeping his title through 2024 of any champ in the UFC.

Alexander Volkanovski finally found the limit of his greatness in 2023, suffering two losses to Islam Makhachev at lightweight. However, he is still the champion at featherweight, where he has posted five impressive title defences against one of the toughest slates of competition of any champion of this era. There's no question he's still one of the very best in the world.

Yet Volkanovski took quite a bit of punishment in his two fights with Makhachev, and at 35, is probably due to start slowing down a bit as well. If that's the case, the timing couldn't be worse, as his next featherweight title defense looks like one of the toughest of his reign.

Volkanovski is next set to defend his belt against the unbeaten Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 in February, and in a rare twist, is only a slight favorite to defend his belt. The line for the fight is fair. Topuria is a devastating finisher on the feet and on the mat, and will have youth and momentum on his side. He can definitely win.

Still, we're picking Volkanovski to do what he always does and defend his title. If that's the case, he should have no issue keeping the belt for the rest of 2024. No other contenders in the Top 10 have as good a shot of beating him as Topuria, and he's already beaten most of them anyway.

Predicting the men's bantamweight champion at the end of next year is tricky.

It could definitely be current champ Sean O'Malley, who claimed the title with a knockout of Aljamain Sterling this year. O'Malley has some obvious holes in his game, but also has the striking to beat any bantamweight on the roster at any moment. Even in fights that look bad for him, he's got a shot.

That's got to be a source of comfort for his fans, as his next two fights look tough.

At UFC 299 in March, he'll run it back with the only man he's ever lost to in Marlon "Chito" Vera. Vera is a slight underdog in the matchup, but he's beaten O'Malley before and can do it again.

The next man in line after UFC 299 will seemingly be streaking contender Merab Dvalishvili, a relentless grappler who frankly looks like a nightmare matchup for anybody in the division, even if his fights can be a bit boring.

O'Malley and Vera both have the striking to knock Dvalishvili senseless, but the more likely outcome is that the Georgian grappler grinds one of them into a fine dust sometime late next year.

Alexandre Pantoja's long journey to a UFC title finally concluded this year, when he swiped the flyweight belt with a decision win over Brandon Moreno.

At this point, there's no denying Pantoja is very good. However, the Brazilian has struggled with consistency in the Octagon, suffering a few key losses during his time on the UFC roster. As a result, it's hard to have a lot of confidence in him keeping the title long-term.

Pantoja's first title defence will co-headline UFC 296 next month, when he takes on Brandon Royval. We're expecting the champion to retain the title in that fight, but beyond that, it will really depend on who he meets next.

It's not clear who will be up for a flyweight title shot after UFC 296, but all signs point to Iraq's Amir Albazi getting the opportunity sometime in 2024.

The 30-year-old has lost just once in 18 pro fights, and while his recent decision win over Kai Kara-France was the subject of serious debate, he has the wrestling to beat many of his peers, and some decent striking to back it up.

He's had the look of a future champ for some time, and we're betting 2024 is the year it finally happens.

The women's bantamweight belt has been vacant since Amanda Nunes retired earlier this year. The UFC will look to crown a new champion in the division at UFC 297 in January, when former title challenger Raquel Pennington takes on rising star Mayra Bueno Silva.

That's a tough fight to call. Pennington typically comes out on top against all but the very best opposition. Silva, meanwhile, is clearly a much more potent finisher, even if her recent submission win over the great Holly Holm was overturned due to a failed drug test.

Silva is slightly favored to win the vacant belt, and that seems about right to us.

If that's the way things shake out, her first challenger will most likely be former champion Julianna Pena, who probably would have fought for the vacant belt if she wasn't injured. Pena is a solid fighter but has been a bit overrated on the strength of her shocking 2021 win over Nunes, which Nunes later avenged in style.

Silva beats her, too, and while she might get one more title defence before the year is out, it's hard to imagine anybody else in the Top 10 challenging her more than Holm, Pennington, or Pena could.

Having retained the flyweight title with a controversial draw against former champion Valentina Shevchenko, Alexa Grasso will most likely shift her focus to a new generation of contenders that includes rising stars like Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot, both of whom have already earned title shots.

Grasso has the skills to beat both women, but it would also not be surprising to see her lose to either one, particularly Blanchfield, who has the grappling to make any female flyweight's life hell. In fact, after Blanchfield's recent wins over former title challengers Jessica Andrade and Taila Santos, she would probably be a sizeable favorite to beat both Grasso and Fiorot in potential 2024 title fights.

However the UFC decides to proceed with the flyweight title in 2024, we're betting Blanchfield will be the champion by year's end, with wins over Grasso and Fiorot—possibly finishes in both cases.

It's not clear who she'll fight next, but the two front-runners are her countrywoman Yan Xiaonan and American wrestler Tatiana Suarez, both whom are riding stoppages against former champ Jessica Andrade.

We like Zhang's chances against Yan, but her chances look far slimmer against the unbeaten Suarez, who has thus far been able to overwhelm every woman she's fought on the mat.

In fact, whether Suarez gets her title opportunity before or after Yan, we're picking her to hold the title by the time next year wraps up, and possibly for quite a while after that.

Much like Blanchfield up at flyweight, she looks like a long-term champion waiting to happen.