UFC Middleweight Odds After Strickland’s Upset Win Over Adesanya
One of the biggest upsets in UFC history occurred on Sept. 10, 2023, when Sean Strickland cruised to a convincing win against longtime 185-pound champion Israel Adesanya.
Strickland was a +650 betting odds underdog.
The upset shook up UFC middleweight futures betting at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Despite currently holding the belt, Strickland is No. 2 on the odds board for who will hold the belt at the end of 2024. You can’t bet on who will be the champion at the end of this year.
Strickland’s odds are +400, significantly higher than Khamzat Chimaev’s leading +165.
Here’s the top 20 on the DraftKings odds board as of Sept. 11, 2023.
- Khamzat Chimaev: +165
- Sean Strickland: +400
- Dricus Du Plessis: +500
- Bo Nickal: +600
- Israel Adesanya: +700
- Ikram Aliskerov: +1200
- Jared Cannonier: +1600
- Anthony Hernandez: +2000
- Robert Whittaker: +2000
- Brendan Allen: +3500
- Alex Pereira: +4500
- Paul Craig: +5000
- Marvin Vettori: +5000
- Roman Dolidze: +5000
- Derek Brunson: +5000
- Paulo Costa: +7000
- Nassourdine Imavov: +7500
- Caio Borralho: +8000
- Junyong Park: +10000
- Kelvin Gastelum: +10000
Odds subject to change.
DraftKings Sportsbook provided Forbes Betting with wagering data on the market. The data includes bets made before Strickland dethroned Adesanya at UFC 293 in Australia.
UFC Middleweight Predictions
Khamzat Chimaev
He’s not currently in the official UFC middleweight rankings, and he has at least one more fight to win before getting a title shot.
Chimaev is scheduled to fight Paulo Costa on Oct. 22. The Chechen is a -375 betting favorite, compared to +270 for Costa.
We believe this fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Costa is by far Chimaev’s toughest test yet, as he will not enjoy the size advantage he had at welterweight. Chimaev moved to the 185-pound division because he had difficulty cutting weight to 170 pounds.
Costa, a physically large middleweight and a former title challenger, could give Chimaev problems, especially if Chimaev can’t put the fight on the ground. The lopsided odds are surely due to oddsmakers trying to balance the action on the fight, as Chimaev is immensely popular. The odds should narrow as the fight approaches.
It’s unclear if the winner of Chimaev-Costa would be the next to fight Strickland. The winner may need to win another fight or could be able to sit out until a title shot materializes. There are many unknowns.
Should Chimaev get past Costa, it appears he’ll have a title shot sometime in 2024, but we have no idea which month it would come in. If he wins the title, Chimaev could fight again before 2024 is over. So, the +165 odds are essentially a parlay on him winning his next three fights.
We recommend passing on this price.
Sean Strickland
He appears to be a UFC champion who will fight often, possibly three times before the end of 2024 despite potentially not having another fight in 2023.
Strickland had the blueprint to beat Adesanya, but will he be able to do it again if there’s a rematch? Will he be able to handle the likes of Chimaev or Du Plessis if either gets a title shot soon?
Strickland, who’s 7-2 since returning to middleweight in 2020, has proven he’s one of the best in the division, but he could be a betting underdog against most of his potential title fight challengers.
Let’s assume he’s even money (+100 odds) for his next three fights. The fair parlay price would be +700. For this reason, we’d recommend staying away from his current +400 odds.
Dricus Du Plessis
Du Plessis looked great in his victory over former title holder Robert Whittaker in July. On paper, he’s next in line for a title shot as the No. 1 ranked middleweight contender. The Whittaker win can’t be understated, as it came when Whittaker was widely regarded as the clear-cut second-best fighter in the division.
The problem is that the winner of Chimaev-Costa could leapfrog him, especially if the fan favorite Chimaev wins spectacularly. Adesanya receiving an immediate rematch against Strickland would also complicate things for Du Plessis, as he would likely need to fight again before a title shot.
It’s conceivable that Du Plessis fights the winner of Chimaev-Costa, with the victor getting the next shot. However, if Adesanya takes some time off and the Chimaev-Costa fight doesn’t produce a compelling title challenger, Du Plessis should get the Strickland matchup. Du Plessis versus Strickland could be a pick’em.
With Strickland having three fights already in 2023, a fight with Du Plessis would probably come in the first quarter of 2024. If Du Plessis wins, he might need to defend the belt one more time next year.
We think his +500 odds are a reasonable wager.
Bo Nickal
We believe this is one of the worst bets at +600 odds.
Nickal, 27, is one of the greatest prospects in UFC history and appears destined to fight for the title eventually. However, with just two UFC fights on his resume, the timeline appears to be later than 2024 for a title shot.
There is a developing logjam at the top of the talent-rich division, so the UFC doesn’t need to push him before he’s ready. The +600 odds would assume he fights once or twice more before a title shot, which isn’t realistic.
Nickal’s star power is immense for an unranked fight, but don’t buy him at his current price.
Israel Adesanya
Suddenly, there are questions about Adesanya’s future in the division. At 34 years old, he’s older than the division’s elite except for Jared Cannonier.
Adesanya is more than deserving of his next fight being for the belt, but it’s unclear if he will go for an immediate rematch with Strickland. If he decides to take time off, there’s a decent chance his next fight for the belt won’t be against Strickland.
At +700 odds, the best-case scenario for bettors here is Adesanya sitting on the sidelines until mid-2024 or later and returning for a title fight against whoever holds the strap at the time. It’s possible he fights just once between now and the end of 2024.
Adesanya wouldn’t be close to a +700 underdog in a fight against anyone in the division, so this wager is intriguing.
We’d recommend paying close attention to any comments from Adesanya or UFC President Dana White in the weeks and months ahead to see what might happen with his return timeline.
Paulo Costa
We’re going to go further down the odds board for this analysis. Costa is a long shot at +7000 to hold the belt at the end of 2024, but he has a reasonable path to a title fight.
As discussed above, Costa’s fight with Chimaev is high stakes, with the winner potentially being next in line or second in line for the next title shot.
The Brazilian is also very popular, which helps his case for a title shot after one or two more wins. A highlight reel knockout of Chimaev could put Costa ahead of Du Plessis for a shot, or he could earn a fight with Du Plessis depending on what Adesanya does.
Costa, 32, lost to Adesanya in 2020 and has only fought twice since, so his lack of activity is a concern. However, he appears to be in good graces with the UFC thanks to his high-profile Chimaev bout.
If we assume that Costa has to win his next three fights, including one for the belt, between now and the end of 2024, the +7000 odds are interesting. He’s a long shot for a reason, but we believe this is a rare moment when a UFC fighter with such long futures odds might have some value.
You could also bet Costa alongside someone else on the odds board as a hedge.
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