Predicting NBA's 1st Time All-Stars This Season

The 2023-24 NBA season will undoubtedly spawn a new batch of All-Stars.

That's part of the excitement with the dawn of a new campaign: We may not know which stars will rise, but we always know they're coming.

Oh, and we maybe do know which ones are cleared for take-off. Or know enough to make some educated guesses, at least.

So, let's get to the educated-guessing portion of the program by predicting which five players will become first-time All-Stars this season.

With a host of in-prime stars still hooping at the highest levels, and no shortage of potential candidates for this exercise, we wound up in a numbers crunch pretty quickly.

So, while we don't quite see an All-Star selection in these players' immediate future, they have a reasonable enough chance to at least deserve an honorable mention.

Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

The last rookie to earn an All-Star selection was Blake Griffin, a player who, like Holmgren, had his would-be freshman season erased by an injury. That year-long exposure to NBA life perhaps allowed Griffin to hit the ground running once he was healthy, and Holmgren, a 7'0" defensive anchor with a jumper and some handles, could be poised to do the same.

Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers

Mobley is only 22 years old and already an All-Defensive first-teamer. He might also be just a couple of offensive enhancements away from becoming a nightly supplier of 20-plus points and perhaps four or more assists. If Cleveland's summer commitment to improving its spacing gives him more room to operate, he could emerge as a two-way star sooner than later.

Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers skipper Darvin Ham sees All-Star potential in Reaves, and it's easy to picture that coming to fruition as soon as this season. He ended last season on a tear (17.6 points, 5.5 assists and a 57.8/44.3/85.6 slash after the All-Star break), then had his confidence boosted twice this summer, first by his new $56 million contract and later by playing a significant role for Team USA.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

The odds of any rookie—even a 7'4" alien—making the All-Star Game are almost nonexistent, but would it shock anyone to see Wembanyama break the mold? He looks like a first-of-his-kind talent, possessing the size, length and instincts to dominate the interior and the handles and shot-making to render opponents powerless on the perimeter.

Banchero wasted no time last season sending the clear and concise message that he was different than most NBA first-timers. He kicked off his career with a historic performance, becoming the first player since LeBron James to debut with a 25-5-5 stat line (27 points, nine rebounds and five assists to be precise).

Banchero kept working his magic (pun partially intended) throughout the campaign, and once the final buzzer sounded, he'd joined historic company once again. With per-game marks of 20 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists, he'd become just the ninth rookie to ever average at least 20 points, 6.5 boards and 3.5 dimes.

He already has all the makings of a walking mismatch: too big for guards, too powerful for wings, too agile for bigs. He looks like a speeding 6'10", 250-pound semi truck on the open court, but his bag reaches way deeper than physical force. He can just as easily dismantle a defense with dribble moves, pull-up jumpers and perfectly placed passes.

The two things missing from his resume last season were efficiency (42.7/29.8/73.8 slash line) and team success (Orlando went 34-48). Both problems already appear on course toward solutions. Between March and April, he was a 44.5 percent shooter overall and 38.7 percent accurate from outside. The Magic, meanwhile, managed to post a winning record after an abysmal 5-20 start, going 29-28 the rest of the way.

Two words best describe Bane's journey through his first three NBA seasons: perpetual growth. At this point, construction crews no longer bother raising his ceiling, because he'll just push it even higher before they can finish.

He has already gone from being a three-and-D wing to a self-sufficient scorer and now a shot-creator for others. His track record alone suggests he'll keep pushing higher, but the statistical growth could be more pronounced than normal as he'll likely handle a metric ton of touches with Ja Morant serving a 25-game suspension.

And remember, it's not like Bane's stat sheet needs much polishing to enter the All-Star conversation. Last season, he was one of only 14 players to average 20 points, five rebounds, four assists and two three-pointers. Among that elite, exclusive club, he had the second-best three-point percentage (40.8) and fifth-highest free-throw percentage (88.3).

If his numbers aren't enough on their own—and they easily could be—he also has a chance to score points with All-Star voters who like a good narrative. If Memphis manages to thrive without Morant, Bane might be the biggest reason why.

When attempting to predict first-time All-Stars, projecting future growth is almost always a part of the process.

Brunson's All-Star case is much simpler, though. If he's simply as effective as he was last season, that might do the trick. He was one of only nine players to average 24 points and six assists, and he was one of just two players in that group—along with two-time All-Star Trae Young—to not make the All-Star Game.

You could argue Brunson was snubbed last season, and you can see the blueprint for him to avoid a similar fate this time around. Last season was his first in New York, and he may have deferred to his teammates too much early on. From October through December, he only averaged 20.2 points. Once the calendar flipped to 2023, though, it was full-throttle from that point forward, as his January-to-April scoring average spiked to 27.8 points, on 51.7/45.6/80 shooting no less.

He can skip the feeling-out period this season and get right into destroying opposing defenses. If he and the Knicks are merely as good (let alone better) as last season, that should get him an invite.

While it's too early to know for certain how the James Harden situation gets resolved in Philly, it sure feels the he'll get moved at some point and probably not bring back a star. So, while Maxey perhaps was on an All-Star trajectory anyway, the Sixers' likely changing of the guard should accelerate the process.

Harden isn't even out the door yet, and new Sixers coach Nick Nurse is already imploring Maxey to put up 20 shots per game. For someone who perhaps hasn't been as assertive and aggressive as he could be, adhering to this green light could be career-changing.

Maxey's trainer, Drew Hanlen, previously set the bar at 25 points per game, and that's not at all an outlandish ask. Maxey managed 20.3 points per outing last season, while bouncing between the starting and reserve units and watching most Philly possessions run through Harden and Joel Embiid first. Receiving a more prominent role might be all the push Maxey needs to clear that number.

A 25-plus-point scoring average may not guarantee Maxey an All-Star spot—Trae Young averaged 26.2 last season and didn't make the cut—but that isn't the only area he can improve. Physically, he should be a better defender than he's been, and he could become a much more impactful playmaker with a more decisive approach. He looks like a good enough decision-maker (career 3.3 assists against 1.1 turnovers) to handle the extra ball-handling responsibilities he'd surely get on the post-Harden Sixers.

I mean, we all saw what happened once Bridges was sent to Brooklyn at last season's trade deadline, right?

Previously a high-end role player for the Phoenix Suns, Bridges looked like nothing less than a franchise talent for the Nets. In 27 games after the trade, he averaged 26.1 points on 47.5/37.6/89.4 shooting, plus 4.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Add his always elite defense to the mix, and well, it sure felt like we were all witnessing the ascension of a star.

As New York Knicks swingman Josh Hart posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, back in April, "With this version of Mikal, he might be the best two-way player in the league."

With no obvious co-star on the roster, Bridges might be served buffet-style with all the touches he can handle. He'll also play under the New York City spotlight, which won't hurt his exposure. Anything less than an All-Star selection would be a disappointment.