B/R Staff: Predicting Every Major NBA Award for 2023-24 Season
Now that the 2023-24 NBA season is underway, it's time to consult our crystal ball, Magic 8 Ball, fortune teller and any other prognosticators we might have to name this campaign's major award winners.
MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Clutch Player of the Year, Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year are all on the board, and Bleacher Report's NBA staff is on the case with predictions.
Our best bets on who takes home each award can be found below.
Nikola Jokić's statistical profile over the last three years is absurd, unprecedented, seemingly impossible. Pick whatever glowing descriptor you want. It probably fits.
The numbers that draw those descriptions were more than good enough to secure a third straight MVP last season. Joel Embiid won the actual vote fairly comfortably, but plenty of numbers favored Jokić. Ultimately, voter fatigue and arguments about his team's playoff runs cost him the award.
But after nearly averaging a 30-point triple-double through a 16-4 postseason that ended with a championship, most of the already hollow arguments used to diminish Jokić in 2022-23 should disappear entirely.
If his averages are around where they've been over the last three years—26.0 points, 12.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists, with a 66.8 true shooting percentage that's 9.5 points better than the league average—and the Denver Nuggets finish at or near the top of the West, Jokić should secure the award for a third time.
—Andy Bailey
I'm not quite ready to give up on Chet Holmgren's Rookie of the Year case. In the preseason debuts of both big men, Holmgren successfully traded haymakers with Victor Wembanyama and emerged with a similar stat line.
But over the next few weeks, Wembanyama produced more wave-making highlight plays and moments. Even his exhibition games quickly became appointment viewing. And it feels like he's going to do something we can't quite process in real time in every contest.
Eric Salinas @EricSal_7
Holmgren's case will be bolstered by his Oklahoma City Thunder almost certainly having a better record than the San Antonio Spurs. But those viral Wemby moments and a clearer path to being a No. 1 option will push him over the top.
—Andy Bailey
Good luck with this one. There are so many completely unknowable factors that play into it.
You have to pick a player from a good team. You have to assume plenty of that team's wins will be close. And your pick has to be the go-to scoring option down the stretch.
Last season, De'Aaron Fox checked all those boxes. He led the league in clutch points (points scored in the final five minutes of games within five points) and was tied for 13th in clutch assists.
There are plenty of reasonable candidates to be the 2023-24 version of Fox, but I'm going a little further down the board and tabbing Trae Young for a few reasons.
First, the Atlanta Hawks were tied for sixth in clutch minutes played as a team last season. Having a full offseason and training camp to implement head coach Quin Snyder's system will help them win more games without necessarily eliminating minutes when the score is close.
The Utah Jazz led the NBA in possessions used by pick-and-roll ball-handlers in 2021-22, Snyder's last season there. He now has one of the game's best and most prolific pick-and-roll playmakers in Young.
Down the stretch of close games, Snyder figures to put the ball in Trae's hands. Young is going to reward his coach with tons of points and assists in those situations.
—Andy Bailey
Mobley finished third overall in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season and landed on the All-Defensive first team. Heading into his third season, he's ready to make the leap to be the NBA's best player on that side of the ball.
Mobley's strength lies in his defensive versatility, as he can play both rim protector and perimeter disruptor, using his 7'0 frame and 7'4" wingspan to blow up the opposing team's hopes of scoring. Despite spending all of his time at power forward and center, no player contested more three-pointers last season than Mobley (281), who also finished first in defensive win shares (4.8).
The Cavaliers had the league's best defensive rating last season on the backs of Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Another high ranking will only help the former's chances of winning his first DPOY trophy.
We saw Mobley make the leap to All-Defensive team member last season. This year, no defender will be better than the 22-year-old.
—Greg Swartz
Had Josh Hart spent the entire 2022-23 season with the New York Knicks, he would have gotten more consideration for Sixth Man of the Year.
In 24 games off the bench for New York following a trade from the Portland Trail Blazers, Hart averaged 10.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks with 59.2/52.0/80.0 percent shooting splits. The Knicks were a whopping 15.9 points per 100 possessions better with Hart on the floor, which ranked in the 99th percentile leaguewide, per Cleaning the Glass.
Hart is going to play a lot of minutes for the Knicks, anywhere from shooting guard to power forward with Obi Toppin gone. Even a deep bench (Immanuel Quickley, Donte DiVincenzo, etc.) won't hurt Hart's chances here, as we've seen teammates finish first and second in the 6MOY voting as recently as 2020-21 (Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles with the Utah Jazz).
Hart may not start many games, but he'll certainly finish a lot alongside Jalen Brunson given his defense, rebounding, passing and as-needed scoring ability.
The Knicks have a real chance to finish as a top-four seed in the East, which will help Hart's candidacy here.
—Greg Swartz
Tyrese Maxey would've been among this season's Most Improved Player candidates regardless of what happened with James Harden. The 22-year-old has no shortage of potential growth areas, and since he wasn't extended this offseason, he has the extra motivation of securing the bag next summer.
Still, the uncertainty around Harden—who's seemingly doing everything he can to force his way out of Philly—is what transforms Maxey from a strong candidate to the projected winner.
He has made leaps in the past, but the Sixers need him to find another gear and will give him every opportunity to do it. Harden's likely subtraction will open a ton of touches in this offense (he averaged 14.5 shots and a league-leading 10.7 assists per game last season), and Maxey is the likeliest player to absorb them while being similarly tasked as the team's top shot-creator and No. 2 scorer.
His sound decision-making (career 3.3 assists against 1.1 turnovers) suggests he could be ready to function as a primary passer, and his consistently efficient shooting (48.1/43.4/84.5 slash last season) indicates he's well-equipped to take on more of the scoring burden. His stat sheet should see several spikes, but if he needs an extra lift to sway voters, he can also have a compelling narrative if he keeps the Sixers afloat (and Joel Embiid happy) without Harden.
—Zach Buckley
When predicting Coach of the Year, there are two ways to go about it. You can either pick the coach of the team you expect to win 60-plus games or pick the coach of the team you expect to be the biggest surprise.
Last year, no team won 60 games. The Bucks (58), Celtics (57) and Nuggets (53) can get there this year, but I suspect they will throttle down in the second half of the season to save their legs for the playoffs, leaving no team with 60 wins again.
That leaves us trying to find this season's Mike Brown, who was way down the board of Coach of the Year odds going into last season before leading the Sacramento Kings to 48 wins and the West's No. 3 seed.
Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is the favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook at +750. The Thunder should improve on their 40-win total from last year, but the West is stronger from Nos. 3 to 12 than the East, which will make it more difficult for them to be a top-six seed.
The Indiana Pacers have a better chance at a significant rise.
They went 35-47 last year, but they were much better than that when Tyrese Haliburton played (28-28 with him, 7-19 without him). If Haliburton stays healthy and Bruce Brown gives them a lift, they should finish above .500. If they also get breakout seasons from Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin, they'll be right around 48 wins and pushing for a top-four seed.
Rick Carlisle is a good bet to make all the pieces fit together.
—Joey Akeley
Odds: N/A
Typically, the top basketball decision-maker of the best team will get the most serious consideration for Executive of the Year. It's a lot easier to vote with some level of hindsight.
Milwaukee Bucks general manager Jon Horst will be an early front-runner after his blockbuster trade for Damian Lillard. But the executives of restructuring teams don't often get enough credit in said voting (notably Michael Winger of the Washington Wizards and Joe Cronin of the Portland Trail Blazers), which is probably the biggest flaw in the award.
With all of that said, put down Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens as the winner. The Celtics have been dominant for some time, but the acquisitions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis could push them over the top.
—Eric Pincus
