Predicting Rockies' 2024 roster, offseason free agent fits
Like most general managers, Bill Schmidt stands just outside the half-shell cage to watch Colorado’s batting practice each day.
He saw plenty in 2023, both good and bad. The bats he either brought on or inherited from former GM Jeff Bridich are starting to blossom, so his time on the outside looking in was joyful. When the games began and the reality of the team’s pitching injuries was on full display, the bad came to light. The result was 103 losses.
The Rockies have another rebuilding year on the horizon for 2024. Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela will be working back from Tommy John surgeries and unavailable for much of the year. The latter likely will miss the entire season.
Pitching has been the team's central weakness for several years. The staff has carried at least a 5.08 ERA in four of the last five years and injuries, paired with a lack of depth in 2023 drove it to a 5.69 mark, second-worst in franchise history.
Ahead are my predictions for the upcoming offseason and 2024 season. The Rockies will once again watch the postseason from home, but there is potential for the drought to end in 2025 if the proper moves are made.
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Predicting the starting rotation
No area of the Rockies is more tied to their future success than the rotation. Injuries took their toll in 2023, and the aforementioned major surgeries to two of the team’s projected starters will impact the 2024 group as well.
Colorado has a pillar in Kyle Freeland. It may have another in Austin Gomber if the second half of this season was an indication of what he can become, even with a balky back.
1. LHP Kyle Freeland
Freeland is the mainstay and an unquestioned leader of the group.
Since 2017, the southpaw has experienced all the ups and downs the Coors Field roller coaster can offer. He grew up in the stands of the ballpark and quickly transitioned his first-round selection in the 2014 draft into a standout season in 2018 — in 202⅓ innings, he compiled a 2.85 ERA and finished fourth in Cy Young voting.
His ERAs since the breakout, in order, have been 6.73, 4.33, 4.33, 4.53 and finally 5.03 in 2023. For comparison, Jorge De La Rosa’s career ERA with Colorado was 4.35. He owns most of the franchise’s pitching records, and Freeland is right on par with his recent results.
2. LHP Austin Gomber
The second lefty atop the rotation is Gomber, who showed an ability in 2023 to be a concrete member of the rotation moving forward.
In five July starts, he compiled a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings. Gomber’s August showcased many of the same results. His 4.68 ERA in five starts came despite battling a back injury that eventually shelved him for the rest of the season after his final start on Aug. 28.
Gomber admitted being a key piece acquired for franchise icon Nolan Arenado wore him down mentally. The pressure was immense and hurt his results on the mound. Once he moved past it, as he showed later in the year, the results brightened and so did his future with the club.
3. RHP Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner has arguably the best repertoire and potential of any pitcher in the organization.
His high-90s fastball and high-usage slider are key parts of his arsenal and present the highest ceiling for any Rockies’ starter. A comebacker on May 13 to the head caused a concussion and skull fracture that limited him to just 10 starts this year, but a return to the mound is an encouraging sign for Feltner’s future.
The righty made a pair of starts in his return and fought through eight innings before a tight elbow shut him down. If Feltner can avoid injuries and build on his progress from 2023, he very well could lead the rotation in 2025.
4. RHP Peter Lambert
Peter Lambert was another victim of a major injury, but he too found success in a 2023 return to the Rockies’ mound.
Colorado deployed him as a long reliever before sending him back to Triple-A Albuquerque to get stretched out for a spot in the rotation. Lambert returned July 1 for his first start since 2021. (Tommy John surgery and subsequent complications held him back for multiple years.) In 11 starts, he compiled a 4.50 ERA and showed he could be an inning-eating starter for the club with the potential for more.
If Lambert’s health continues to improve, expect him to be a key member of the rotation.
5. RHP Chase Anderson
The fifth starting spot in the Rockies’ rotation is a mystery, but Anderson showed manager Bud Black a lot in his time after being plucked off waivers.
Black has spoken highly of Anderson’s ability to battle through starts and give Colorado a chance to win. His 5.75 ERA in 17 starts included seven no-hit innings against the San Francisco Giants on Sept. 15. Ideally, the franchise would bring in another arm to overtake Anderson and leave the veteran as a depth piece.
The Rockies are still at least a year from competing, though, and may choose to save money while they wait for Márquez and Senzatela to get healthy for 2025. Anderson would also afford the franchise time to wait for the young pieces it acquired at the trade deadline.
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Rockies 2024 lineup prediction
1. RF Charlie Blackmon
2. SS Ezequiel Tovar
3. LF Nolan Jones
4. 1B Kris Bryant
5. C Elias Díaz
6. 3B Ryan McMahon
7. DH Elehuris Montero
8. 2B Brendan Rodgers
9. CF Brenton Doyle
With good health, the Rockies would have a formidable lineup in 2024 that could receive a boost from top prospects like Jordan Beck and Drew Romo along the way.
Blackmon is set to return for what could be his final season after signing a one-year extension. Jones and Tovar showcased their abilities to be everyday fixtures in the lineup but also key pieces to build around moving forward.
The question marks are Bryant and McMahon.
Bryant missed another 82 games this season due to various ailments and has played in less than half of the club’s games since signing a seven-year, $182 million deal before the 2022 season. With Chicago, he hit .279 across seven seasons and won both NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP in back-to-back years to start his Cubs’ tenure. The Rockies need Bryant as a leader on the field rather than just off of it.
Colorado also needs another leap from McMahon, who has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons. But his franchise-record 198 strikeouts in 2023 are cause for concern and compounded the team’s whiff issues.
Maybe this year was an anomaly, and McMahon's strikeouts will sink to their 2021 (147) and 2022 (158) levels in 2024. Going from a .240 average to around .265 or .270 could turn McMahon into a 30-homer player with some of the league’s best defense at third base. If he stays at the same level, and the strikeouts remain, the Rockies could be forced to question another big-money deal. McMahon signed a six-year, $70 million extension before 2022 that goes through the 2027 season.
The Rockies have to cut down on strikeouts, in general, to find offensive success in 2024. They compiled a franchise-worst batting average this year (.249) behind a franchise-record 1,543 strikeouts. Colorado also hit its second-fewest home runs (149) in a 162-game season.
It is a lineup with the potential to be good, but the Rockies need health from Bryant and a teamwide cut on strikeouts. If not, another 100-loss season could be on the horizon.
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Top free-agent fits
The Rockies’ historical success has come from growing players within, supplemented with smart signings rather than big-money signings.
The odds of the club going on a shopping spree are low, and trades of top prospects for major-league talent are much more likely, especially for pitching. Here are the top fits among a decent, not great free agent class.
1. SP Marcus Stroman
Rumors were consistent when Bridich was in town that Stroman’s athleticism and pitching style could work in Colorado. With a new front office, the love for him may have subsided, but his fit remains.
Stroman will turn 33 next season and could be an ideal target. The Rockies will have trouble bringing in any young pitchers looking to prove themselves. But a veteran on his final big-money deal could be a different story. His sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last four seasons would rise, but if he is secured for the remainder of his career, the numbers would matter less. A price tag of roughly $20 million per year is likely too much for the franchise to stomach, though.
2. SP Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery is also an interesting target. He will be 31 next season and has pitched in hitter-friendly parks in New York and Texas, experiences that could translate to the league’s hitter's haven in Colorado.
The lefty is among the league’s 25 best starters in groundball rate and could give the Rockies’ standout defense a chance to back him up. Montgomery has also made at least 30 starts in each of the last three years and could be another anchor for their rotation.
3. RP Pierce Johnson
The Rockies are unlikely to make strong bids for top-money pitchers, and Pierce Johnson could be the most realistic target of the bunch.
He was signed by Colorado before the 2023 season and subsequently traded to Atlanta for a pair of prospects at the deadline. His hometown roots and the Rockies' generosity in trading him to a top contender could pay off with another stint at Coors Field. He compiled a 6.00 ERA in 43 appearances for the club before lowering it to 0.76 in Atlanta after the trade and could be a boost to the bullpen for a reasonable price.
4. IF Adam Frazier
Colorado lacks middle-infield depth, and so does the offseason free agent market. The Rockies could take a chance on a 2021 All-Star like Frazier without risking another big contract going wrong.
Frazier has bounced around the league since his All-Star selection with Pittsburgh, and his stats have submarined alongside it. After hitting a career-best .305 in 2021, he has hit .238 and .240 in the two seasons since for San Diego, Seattle and Baltimore. A left-handed hitter would help a Rockies’ roster loaded with righties, and the best hitter’s park of his career could boost the infielder’s sinking numbers.
5. C Tom Murphy
How about another Rockies reunion?
Tom Murphy was originally drafted by Colorado in the third round of the 2012 draft. He played sparingly across four seasons with the club before ending up in Seattle through San Francisco’s 2019 waiver claim. He hit just .219 with the Rockies before upping the average to .250 in four years with the Mariners.
Elias Díaz is the Rockies’ starting catcher, but Murphy could be brought in on a one-year deal to give solid production from the backup slot and allow Romo to grow in the minors for a possible starting spot behind the plate in 2025.
