2024 Colorado Rockies Season Preview: Win Total Odds and Prediction

As Spring Training games become a daily occurrence we inch closer and closer to MLB’s Opening Day, personally my favorite opening day of all the four major sports. The feeling of warm weather, green grass, blue skies, every team starting with a clean slate with the goal being an opportunity to compete in the fall classic.

There is something special about the start of baseball season, and I think it has something to do with what direction each team will take after a very long offseason of trades, big free agent signings, and top prospects working their way to the majors.

That is of course, unless you are the Colorado Rockies. Who quite frankly don’t seem to know what direction they would like to go. Which is quite evident when you look at their win total odds and the roster that is presently constructed.

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The win total set in place for the Colorado Rockies at the time of this post is 59.5, and I am firmly on the under for this team.

You may think this number is too low, possibly even insulting, in order for this number to go under the Rockies would have to lose at least 103 games. Well for starters, they accomplished that exact same feat last season, finishing 59-103, the first 100-loss season in franchise history might I add, and I believe this season could possibly be even worse.

The Rockies are entering this season with what might possibly be the worst starting rotation statistically in all of baseball. The Rockies are projected to have starters Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill (trade acquisition from Cleveland), Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, and free agent signing Dakota Hudson. Hudson was the only pitcher of that group to have an ERA under 5.00 in 2023, and his ERA was 4.98.

Winning baseball games is difficult if your starters are allowing five runs an outing. Additionally, the Rockies will be without their 2021 All-Star German Marquez until at least the All-Star break as he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery.

The pitching problems don’t end with the starting rotation. In 2023 the Rockies bullpen had an ERA of 5.41, which was the worst in the majors, and there weren’t many moves made to improve the bullpen.

Now, it is certainly difficult to attract free agent pitchers to Colorado, as pitching in the friendly confines of Coors Field is not an ideal scenario for a pitcher, but for the only signing to be Jalen Beeks who was claimed off of waivers from Tampa Bay, is not the movement that instills confidence in a fan or a sports bettor.

One last comment regarding the bullpen, the Rockies have yet to name a closer for the 2024 season.

Now, the odds on favorite to start the season in that role is Daniel Bard, who in 2022 had a remarkable season, posting an ERA of 1.79, recording a career-high 34 saves and earned himself down ballot votes for National League MVP. However, in 2023 Bard took a major step backwards, recording only one save in 50 games pitched all while posting an ERA of 4.56.

That is not a recipe for success, however it isn’t all doom and gloom in Colorado as their lineup is filled with young talent.

Injuries riddled the Rockies’ lineup in 2023 with Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, and Gold Glove shortstop Brendan Rodgers all missing significant time, but it opened the door for many young faces.

Nolan Jones was a former second-round draft pick of the then Cleveland Indians back in 2016, and after failing to find a spot in Cleveland he made his way to Colorado where he made an immediate impact. Batting .297 while recording 20 home runs and 62 runs batted in, while also stealing 20 bases on 24 attempts, Jones found himself finishing in fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.

Brenton Doyle was another rookie for Colorado in 2023, and while he didn’t have the impact at the plate that Jones did, only hitting .203 in 126 games, he was an incredible outfielder for the Rockies and earned himself a Gold Glove as a rookie.

An injury to Brendan Rodgers at shortstop opened the door for Ezequiel Tovar to make an impact, and Tovar recorded 147 hits in 153 games played and hit a respectable .253 while also providing sound defense in the middle infield, and many within the Rockies organization believe he will be the next Colorado shortstop to win a Gold Glove.

Now while all of this is positive news for Colorado, there is a major question regarding the lineup, and that being the health of their veteran bats. That all starts with Kris Bryant, who is entering year three of an $182M seven-year deal and has played a total of 122 games in two seasons, and it has recently been reported that he regrets signing with the Rockies and that he didn’t realize how far off they were from competing.

This team literally cannot catch a break.

Additionally the Rockies will be welcoming back Rodgers who played in only 46 games last season and will be making the full-time switch to second base after the emergence of Tovar. If Rodgers can make a seamless transition and play Gold Glove defense at second base while also playing at the All-Star level many in the organization believe he is capable of, then the middle infield will be set for many years to come.

Taking all of this into account I believe that there are too many questions with the Rockies, and I know I may come across as a betting bully but this team is just not capable of winning 60 games. In 2023, the Rockies went 14-38 against their division foes, and I don’t see a world where that record improves and if you can’t stack up wins against the teams you will play the most then it will be a long season in the Rocky Mountains.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.