Premier League: Everton vs. Manchester City odds, pick, prediction
Manchester City is not in a must-win spot against Everton on Wednesday, but the stakes are quite high for the Cityzens considering we’re not even halfway through the season just yet.
Man City currently sits in fifth-place in the Premier League and are eight points behind league-leading Liverpool, though City has two matches in hand, so dropping any points to the Toffees could put Manchester City in danger of falling out of the title race for the time being. That would put Pep Guardiola’s side -- which has won the league three years in a row and five times in the last six seasons -- in unfamiliar territory.
The bookmakers are confident that City will get the job done on Wednesday and have installed them as a -175 road favorite at Goodison Park.
If you look at the Premier League table, you’d think that this is a mismatch. Everton currently sit in 17th-place and are just four points above the relegation zone, while City is in the thick of the title race. But this is misleading for a couple of reasons. The most obvious is that Everton was hit with a 10-point deduction for breaching Financial Fair Play regulations, so they’ve actually earned 26 points and should be in the middle of the table but their penalty has them in the thick of the fight for Premier League survival.
The other misleading factor about Everton’s season is a bit more nuanced, but it is worth mentioning because it helps to illustrate why the Toffees have treated bettors so well of late. While Everton are technically in a relegation battle, their statistical profile is closer to that of a team that should be fighting for a place in the top-half of the table and perhaps for a spot in the Europa League. Everton boast the eighth-best expected goal differential so far this season and their defensive metrics are among the best in the competition.
Despite their struggles, Manchester City remain the best team in the world. That said, Everton have been one of the Premier League’s best teams for months now and have the defensive wherewithal to hang around in this contest and make it a real tussle for the Cityzens.
There’s plenty of value on the Toffees to pull the upset in front of a raucous home crowd on Wednesday evening.
The Bet: Everton +500 (DraftKings)
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