Premier League predictions: Goals, goals, goals in Burnley vs Luton
Our tipster Jones Knows sprinkles his analysis over the latest Premier League fixtures where goals look to be on the menu when Burnley host Luton on Friday.
Burnley vs Luton, Friday 8pm
Since Christmas Day, 16 of the last 20 Premier League games have seen over 2.5 goals scored. The total per-game average for the season now stands at a simply monstrous 3.13 over a healthy 198 game sample size. If this ratio remains consistent for the remainder of the campaign, it's going to soar past the previous Premier League record of goals-per-game average, which was recorded last season at 2.85. There are no signs of that rate slowing either so goals have to be the play here when assessing the prices. It's 5/6 with Sky Bet for over 2.5 goals - it's a great starting point.
There are only a handful of games a season both these teams will put into the winnable category and this one fits the bill. Three points will be the aim. Of the 22 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 2.9 per game - above what has been expected by the market. And 36 per cent of those 22 games have seen four or more goals scored. That is priced up here at 9/4 with Sky Bet. It's tempting.
There is a clear trend developing that these types of games are producing more attacking intent than what the expected models are spitting out for the bookmaker lines. I'm expecting excitement and goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Chelsea vs Fulham, Saturday 12.30pm
If my life depended on getting this prediction right then Chelsea would be the selection but at the odds on offer 4/7 with Sky Bet does feel a price to steer clear of. There remain huge flaws in the way Chelsea go about matching up their underlying process - which is up there with the best in the Premier League - and being clinical in front of goal. Even Cole Palmer caught that bug against Middlesbrough.
In a game I'm expecting Fulham to be fully competitive in, the odds surrounding Willian's chances of scoring the first goal - around 14/1 with Sky Bet - do look rather attractive. The former Chelsea man remains a dangerous outlet despite approaching his 36th birthday, scoring four times in his last five starts, including opening the scoring at Anfield in midweek and grabbing the first goal in Fulham's 2-1 win over Chelsea last season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It takes a brave punter to put faith in the under 2.5 goals line in a Premier League match this season, let alone one involving Manchester City.
However, doing that may just lead you to profit in putting faith in this game going down a low-scoring avenue. Newcastle do possess the defensive structure and ability to seriously frustrate Man City even if their form has wobbled significantly over the Christmas period. There have been just five goals scored in the last three meetings between these two clubs as City have found it tough to create big moments against Eddie Howe's defensive structure.
In those three fixtures, City averaged just 0.97 worth of expected goals and just three shots on target. That is a major drop on both key metrics which have seen City average 2.10 worth of expected goals and 6.3 shots on target per game during the Pep Guardiola era.
And remember, City are facing a team that have conceded just 21 goals in 29 home league games since the start of last season - no team Premier League side have a better home defensive record. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals can't be ignored.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Everton vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Everton have made the second-most fouls (253) in the Premier League this season whilst only Tottenham (292) have won more fouls than Aston Villa (257) this season. This has led me to the Everton player fouls market in a game that could be very bitty, where Andre Gomes, if selected, looks an exciting play to make two or more fouls at 11/8 with Sky Bet and to make three or more fouls at 9/2.
In 5,790 minutes of Premier League action during his time with Everton, Gomes is averaging 2.38 fouls per 90 minutes - that makes him one of the biggest foul merchants in Premier League history.
Over the past 20 seasons, only Glenn Murray (2.68), Marouane Fellaini (2.57) and Ashley Barnes (2.47) have a higher fouls per game ratio of players to have played over 5,000 Premier League minutes than Gomes. The Everton midfielder, who returned from long-term injury in December, has already made eight fouls in just 159 minutes of action across all competitions, including somehow making a foul despite playing just one minute in the 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester United vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I want to run as far as I can away from making a confident prediction on this encounter.
Which Manchester United will turn up? Not even Erik ten Hag knows, so what chance does an idiot like me stand?
There are bound to be goals but the market has that covered with just 2/5 with Sky Bet on offer for both teams to score. A scoring draw at 100/30 might be the way in as a stalemate is due at Old Trafford - it's been 17 games since United have drawn a game at home in the Premier League. Plus, there's been no draws in the last 17 meetings between United and Spurs at Old Trafford a run dating back to October 2005. Those who love a trend-ender should consider getting on.
There is value to be had in the player offsides market where Bruno Fernandes is worth a look at 15/8 with Sky Bet to be caught offside by Tottenham's high line. Only Aston Villa have caught more players offsides this season with Spurs racking up 64 offsides against. Despite not playing as the focal point, Fernandes does tend to wander into offside positions in his free role - as shown by his three offsides recorded in the 3-2 win over Aston Villa, taking his tally to eight for the season. The 15/8 looks generous.
