Premier League predictions: Luton to stunt Tottenham's progress

Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action, unleashing his predictions and betting angles across an exciting weekend.

Luton vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30

Tottenham are riding the crest of an Ange Postecoglou wave. The thing is with waves is that they do eventually crash.

I'll be flabbergasted if they manage to keep pace with Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool over the course of the season, with their finishing position likely to be jostling with Manchester United and Chelsea based on the early season metrics. And, I'd assume, Spurs fans will be just fine with that considering the fun football on show.

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Such is his expansive and risk-reward style of football, Postecoglou gives the opposition a chance, much like Brighton do. Spurs have faced more shots (92) and shots on target (34) than 10 other Premier League teams this season and offering up such golden chances to opponents does make me uneasy regarding their status at 2/5 favourites with Sky Bet here.

Luton on the double chance (draw or win) at 15/8 would be the obvious way to take advantage of the overzealous Spurs price but doubts remain about the quality of Luton's attackers, so I've headed to their corner lines for a more confident best bet.

Rob Edwards knows his team must play for set pieces by getting the ball into opposition territory fast to create situations to win corners down the flanks or free kicks by playing at a high tempo. At home, their corner count has been traditionally very healthy, averaging 7.4 corners per game at Kenilworth Road last season - a tally only bettered by West Brom in the Championship.

The step up to the Premier League hasn't affected their output yet as they've won 26 corners across their three games against Wolves, West Ham and Burnley, winning seven or more in all three matches. Therefore, the 5/4 on offer for them to win five or more corners is rather juicy with six or more (5/2) and seven or more (9/2) also worth noting as slices of value.

Burnley vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm

There was a lot to like about Chelsea's 2-0 win over Fulham - none more so than the fluidity, balance and aggression shown by their midfield three of Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, and the excellent Conor Gallagher. We're talking best midfield three in the Premier League territory here based on that performance.

It gives the team an excellent balance between defence and attack - all three of them can do a bit of everything. The attack still needs significant work, which does leave Chelsea vulnerable to winning games consistently but, with the midfield and defence functioning to a high level, it may only take one goal for them to grab three points against teams outside the elite six or seven. That's why Chelsea remain a fantastic team to be backing the under 2.5 goals line on. Their last five games have all landed for punters backing it - and with Evens on offer for another, it should prove profitable to keep on following it in.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Everton vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm

Hands up. I may have got Bournemouth completely wrong.

There have been signs of promise, especially in defeats at Brighton and Liverpool, however, the way they allowed Arsenal to run all over them without the Gunners getting out of second gear really did make me do a complete turnaround on their prospects.

There was a lack of chemistry, and confidence must be approaching rock bottom levels, having now not won in 11 Premier League games either side of the summer. That fragility, added to a clear lack of understanding of a potential gameplan under Andoni Iraola, makes this an open goal type of situation for Everton to break a horrendous run at Goodison Park.

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When the price is right, Everton are a team I like to back under Sean Dyche. They battered Luton for large parts last weekend, creating an expected goals tally of 2.90 from their 23 shots and away wins at both Brentford and Aston Villa remain fresh in my memory. Any win will do for Dyche so I can see a no-thrills, low-scoring game in prospect, with Everton possessing that extra bit of cohesion and attacking nous to get the job done. Them to win in an under 2.5 goals game at 4/1 with Sky Bet is a bit of me.

Fulham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm

In what looks an uninspiring betting heat involving two underwhelming teams, heading to the shots market might bring a path to profit.

Luke Thomas, signed from Leicester, has shown a knack for making some aggressive forward runs into dangerous shooting positions from his left-wing back role for Sheffield United. He's had four shots in 292 minutes of action so his average from a very small sample size is over one shot per 90 minutes. The Blades will have to play with some attacking intent in what will be seen as a winnable fixture and Thomas is a 5/6 with Sky Bet to have at least one shot. That should give you a great run.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Manchester United vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm

When the pressure starts to increase on a manager in a big job, backing their next matches to become low scoring is a punting tactic worth utilising when the time is right.

That time is certainly right here with the goal expectancy on this fixture bordering on north of three goals to the extent we can easily grab 6/5 with Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals.

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Any win will do for Erik ten Hag, much in the same mould as it did when the heat turned up for United's trip to Burnley.

They stank their way to a scrappy 1-0 that night and this fixture involving an opponent in Brentford who are defensively focused away from home should go down that same avenue.

United are struggling in front of goal anyway. Only Bournemouth (six per cent) and Everton (five per cent) have lower shot conversion rate than Ten Hag's men, who have only scored more than once in one of their seven Premier League games this season. Meanwhile, 11 of Brentford's last 14 matches away from home have seen under 2.5 goals land, including at Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

A player as special as Eberechi Eze is going to be missed.

He has started every Premier League game under Roy Hodgson but his hamstring issue makes Palace uneasy favourites against a gritty Forest side, who have lost just three of their last 11 Premier League matches (away at Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City). Palace's record without Eze since the start of last season does put some substance to my Eze-less theory. In eight matches where he didn't start, Palace are winless, scoring just five times in those matches. The Forest 'draw no bet' angle at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks a little generous.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Brighton vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Grab some popcorn. Settle in for some box office action.

Regular readers (hello mum) will be aware of my tendency to side with Brighton when priced up as outsiders, but I'm resisting the urge here as Liverpool's firepower is just too hot to ignore. The lack of chemistry and balance in the Brighton midfield is causing huge issues for them in conceding an alarming amount of high probability chances.

That's led to 14 goals conceded in their seven Premier League games and with a emotionally sapping 2-2 draw in Marseille still fresh in the legs, I'm worried for them against Jurgen Klopp's attack, who have scored in their last 20 games in all competitions and at least three times in seven of their last 11 fixtures. The 11/10 with Sky Bet on an away win looks one of the best bets of the weekend.

Wolves vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

You know what's coming: yup, opposition offside lines vs Aston Villa. The Unai Emery offside trap remains a thing of beauty, especially in away games. Chelsea were caught offside 10, yes, 10 times in their 1-0 defeat to Villa. That's now 54 offsides against in their last 10 away games, with six of those matches seeing the opposition hit six or more offsides. Even though the bookmakers are adjusting their prices, it remains a frightening edge to attack. You can get 11/10 with Sky Bet on Wolves being caught offside four or more times with the highest line available six or more at 4/1.

Pedro Neto has yet to be caught offside this season but he'll be playing right on the Villa line down the right, looking to burst in behind like he did to superb effect in the win over Manchester City. He is 5/6 to be caught offside at least once and 4/1 to be flagged two or more times.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

West Ham vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm

My early season worries for Newcastle not being able to hit the heights of last season have eroded. The edge to their play is back - as seen in their intense win over PSG, where they ran all over the French side. That edge is breeding much more confidence and solidity within their defensive structure, which is once again flourishing, keeping five clean sheets in their last six games with only a solitary goal conceded.

This will be a tricky trip to east London, but one where energy levels might be flagging across both sets of players considering their European exploits. Defences will be to the fore and one goal might be enough to nick this either way, so it was surprising to see under 2.5 goals available to back at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Arsenal vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

It's very rare we're given the opportunity to back Manchester City at an odds-against price in any competition.

That speaks volumes for the high regard Arsenal are held in - and rightly so, they are a fantastically constructed side with the physicality in key areas to go toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola's men. However, do they possess the required mental prowess to stop City doing what they usually do against Arsenal? City have won the last 12 Premier League meetings and all the performance metrics this season are still screaming for them being, clearly, the best team in this Premier League. No Rodri does temper my enthusiasm slightly in getting stuck into the 11/8 with Sky Bet, but for an outright prediction it must be an away win when assessing the prices.

Julian Alvarez to score from outside the box is most certainly worth a mention at 12/1 with Sky Bet, too.

Since Kevin De Bruyne's injury, Alvarez is taking up a huge amount of responsibility, especially from dead ball situations. Overall, he's had 16 shots from outside the box in all competitions this season, nine on target with seven of those being direct free kicks. In fact, of his total goals output of six the average distance he's scoring from is 18.3 yards, with two of those goals coming from outside the box, showcasing his devastating accuracy from range.