Projecting College Football's Preseason Top 25 for 2023 Before Fall Camp
Among the many offseason staples, projecting the preseason AP Top 25 for the next college football campaign is a favorite. After all, who doesn't love a ranking to get ready for another season?
And we're aiming for perfection in 2023.
Two years ago, B/R's prediction included 23 of the 25 programs with the misses effectively ranked 26th and 27th. Last season, we pegged 24 schools with the only incorrect team checking in 26th.
The order is subjective but focused on the initial AP Top 25, not how rankings will look at the season's end.
25. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Arkansas, Iowa, Pitt, UCLA and UTSA are among the other programs that may sneak into the Top 25. However, the Red Raiders closed 2023 on a four-game winning streak and return an experienced offense led by quarterback Tyler Shough. They'll have a huge upset opportunity with Oregon—Shough's former team—coming to Lubbock in Week 2.
24. Wisconsin Badgers
New coach Luke Fickell has embraced an overhaul in Madison, hiring Phil Longo to install an uptempo, spread-heavy offense. Traditions die hard, but Wisconsin fans might be quick to embrace Longo and SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai if the team is winning. By avoiding Michigan, Penn State and even Maryland in crossover Big Ten games, the Badgers certainly have that chance in 2023.
23. South Carolina Gamecocks
Welcome to the gauntlet, South Carolina. Third-year coach Shane Beamer has the program moving in a positive direction, but the September slate includes North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee. Throw in Kentucky and Clemson to close the regular season, and the Gamecocks could have a successful year and finish just 8-4.
22. Tulane Green Wave
In a new-look AAC, the Green Wave arrive as a formidable title defender behind dual-threat quarterback Michael Pratt. But even before Tulane heads to league play, it'll be tested. South Alabama is a pesky opener, and Ole Miss is a not-so-sneaky obstacle in Week 2.
21. North Carolina Tar Heels
An interesting note is that North Carolina plays outside of its home state, South Carolina or Georgia one time all season. Will the minimal travel be a quiet edge? Drake Maye, who's considered a top NFL draft prospect, provides a loud advantage for the Heels.
20. Oregon State Beavers
Do the Beavers bring up the rear on the Pac-12's second tier? Or are they leading the third? As long as Oregon State capitalizes on its opening stretch, a Friday night showdown with Utah should determine where the Beavers land in the league's hierarchy.
19. Oklahoma Sooners
Not only is Oklahoma looking to make a statement in its final Big 12 season, but the Sooners are also looming for a bounce-back year. They stumbled to a frustrating 6-7 record in Brent Venables' first season at the helm. The schedule sets up quite nicely, considering OU's toughest game in September is one of SMU, Cincinnati or Iowa State.
18. TCU Horned Frogs
Perhaps this is a "disrespectful" landing spot for last year's national runner-up, but TCU again has much to prove. Max Duggan's replacement is Chandler Morris—who initially won the QB job in 2022 until an injury sidelined him—so that's not a huge concern. The issue is the Horned Frogs otherwise have to revamp the skill positions on offense.
17. Ole Miss Rebels
Unlike last season, Ole Miss doesn't ease into the 2023 campaign. Along with a trip to Tulane in Week 2, the Rebels head to Alabama and host LSU before September ends. If that's not the most difficult opening month for any team, it certainly is close.
16. Kansas State Wildcats
Never flashy, typically steady. That's the short version of Kansas State, which finally hit 10 wins in 2022 after six seasons of eight or nine wins in the previous nine years. By no means is K-State expected to compete for a national crown, but the Wildcats are an upper-tier Big 12 squad.
15. Utah Utes
I'm feeling like a broken record in mid-July, constantly noting that Utah's season hinges on Cam Rising's return from an ACL injury. Head coach Kyle Whittingham said in April that Rising is expected to be ready for the opener against Florida. Given the level of competition right away—the Utes then head to Baylor in Week 2—Utah has to play well immediately.
14. Washington Huskies
The offense set a high bar in 2022, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returns with standout receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. On the other hand, the secondary ranked 100th or worse in every meaningful stat. Washington is aiming to show an 11-win season was no fluke, but an improved defense will be vital to that pursuit.
13. Oregon Ducks
Bo Nix has enjoyed two largely positive years in four combined seasons as a starter at Auburn and Oregon. Both of those happened with Kenny Dillingham at offensive coordinator, and he's now the boss at Arizona State. Oregon needs Will Stein, formerly of UTSA, to work some Dillingham-type magic with Nix to keep the Ducks in the hunt.
12. Texas Longhorns
In the program's final season as part of the Big 12, the Longhorns are the on-paper favorite. For much of the last decade, however, we've watched Texas turn a strong preseason outlook into a nightmare. Soon after a showdown at Alabama in Week 2, the Horns take on Baylor, Kansas and Oklahoma to kick off conference play.
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The arrival of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman has sparked a wave of optimism, and that's not unreasonable after a nine-win season. Bridging the gap between good and great will be a hefty undertaking, though, because the Fighting Irish host Ohio State and USC and have a trip to Clemson.
10. Tennessee Volunteers
Between last season's 11-win record and Joe Milton's performance in the Orange Bowl, the Vols will begin the campaign either in or just outside the Top 10. We'll start learning about UT relatively early thanks to September matchups with Florida, UTSA and South Carolina.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
As excitement builds for the full-time starting debut of former top prospect Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions find themselves in a familiar spot. They're a talented team with a sturdy defense, and 10 wins is an attainable mark. But will they be able to overpower both Michigan and Ohio State to stand atop the Big Ten and contend nationally?
8. Florida State Seminoles
The combination of a surprising rise to 10 wins in 2022, a whole lot of returning production and a large number of impact transfers has vaulted Florida State into the "hyped" category. Although the Seminoles need to end a seven-game skid to Clemson, the ACC abandoning divisions in 2023 aids FSU's aim to secure a league title.
7. Clemson Tigers
Once again, Clemson is the ACC favorite. The good news for the Tigers is they're set to host Florida State and North Carolina—and are even at home against Notre Dame. The path to any championship is favorable, especially with a likely high-end defense. But a new-look offense will have the greatest effect on Clemson's level of success in 2023.
6. LSU Tigers
While the defense has a handful of starters to replace, the Jayden Daniels-led offense is largely intact from LSU's stunning run to an SEC West crown in 2022. If transfers bulk up the defense as the Tigers hope, they'll be right alongside Alabama once again.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ryan Day is not on a hot seat, yet Ohio State's fifth-year coach is certainly starting to feel pressure. However, we're still talking about someone who's posted a 42-6 record over the last four seasons and squeezed into the College Football Playoff in 2022. Expectations are high in Columbus, as always.
4. USC Trojans
Armed with Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams behind center, the Trojans have a prime opportunity ahead in 2023. However, will they be able to navigate a very talented Pac-12? Utah, Washington and Oregon all await on a challenging regular-season slate.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Nick Saban's high standards will be tested in 2023. The level of overall talent is fantastic, as always, but Alabama's quarterback situation—will Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson or Tyler Buchner be the starter?—is truly unclear. Although both games are at home, September clashes with Texas and Ole Miss loom large on the Crimson Tide's schedule.
2. Michigan Wolverines
In two years, Jim Harbaugh has morphed from a disappointment at his alma mater to a two-time Big Ten champion. Headlined by quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, the Wolverines are a strong contender for another CFP trip.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
The back-to-back national champions. Any questions? No? Good.
