Purdue vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

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15 January 2023

Purdue vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

While big man Zach Edey is undoubtedly the star of this Purdue squad, his scoring numbers have dipped of late as the Boilermakers look for a more balanced offensive attack. We expect that trend to continue against Michigan State this afternoon.

Two of the top teams in the Big Ten will collide on Monday afternoon as the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers visit the Michigan State Spartans.

The Boilermakers are 16-1 on the season behind junior center Zach Edey, who leads the team in scoring and the nation in rebounding. The Spartans had won seven straight games before losing 75-66 to the Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday night.

Edey will once again be the focal point of the Purdue offense on Monday. We’ll discuss what bettors can expect from the big man in our college basketball picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Michigan State on January 16.

Purdue vs Michigan State best odds

Purdue vs Michigan State picks and predictions

While Purdue is far from a one-man show, there’s no denying that this Boilermakers team is built around Zach Edey. The 7-foot-4 junior center is averaging 21.3 points and 13.2 rebounds per game while shooting 62.9% from the floor.

That shows remarkable improvement from Edey over last season. While he was already a well-known center and an NBA prospect, he put up a more modest 14.4 points per game last season while playing just 19 minutes a game.

This year, he has proven that he can succeed without any limitations, as he’s now playing over 31 minutes a game while remaining just as efficient at the offensive end. He’s also a defensive stalwart, blocking 2.2 shots per game.

Lately, however, Edey’s offense has been slowing down just a bit. In Big Ten play, he has remained as efficient as ever, but the offense is spreading the ball around more than it did earlier in the season. This could be a function of teams beginning to realize just how important Edey is to the Boilermakers and trying to force other players to beat them.

Regardless of the reason, Edey has scored 20 or more points in just one of his last five games. This isn’t due to a lack of playing time or being pulled in blowouts, either. In Purdue’s only loss of the season — a 65-64 defeat to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights earlier this month — Edey went just 6-for-10 from the field and scored 19 points. When Purdue bounced back with a 2-point win over the Ohio State Buckeyes, Edey went for just 16 points.

This isn’t a major problem for Purdue, which has found scoring in other places when necessary. The Boilermakers will need a balanced offense in order to make a run at a national title, so having players like Fletcher Loyer, Braden Smith and Caleb Furst step up and take some of the offensive load will benefit them down the stretch.

However, it does mean that we should be careful when looking at Edey’s player props. Despite his overall averages, his scoring numbers are clearly coming down, as he is averaging just 18.7 points in his last seven games. On Monday, Edey faces off against another solid defensive Big Ten team in the Spartans, who are allowing just 65.5 points per game.

Between Purdue’s trend towards a more balanced offense and Michigan State’s defense, I have trouble seeing this as a huge night for Edey in the box score.

My best bet: Zach Edey Under 19.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

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Purdue vs Michigan State spread analysis

College basketball odds opened tonight’s game with the Boilermakers as a 4.5-point road favorite over the Spartans. There has been movement towards Michigan State since then, with lines as low as Purdue -3 available at some sites as of Monday morning.

Both teams have been fairly average against the spread this year. Purdue is 7-9-1 ATS on the season, while Michigan State is 9-8 ATS.

A quick look at the numbers may give the impression that Purdue wins via its defense. In reality, while the Boilermakers are holding opponents to 61.1 points per game, that’s at least partially due to the glacial pace they play at on the offensive end. Yet they still score 75.8 points per game, as Edey leads one of the most efficient offensive attacks in the nation.

Purdue doesn’t shoot much from beyond the arc, but they are among the best teams in the country when it comes to rebounding and getting to the foul line. The Boilermakers average 1.134 points per possession, the third-best number in the nation.

Michigan State also plays slowly — both of these teams rank outside the Top 300 in most pace metrics — so we can expect this afternoon’s game to be a grindy affair. It’s hard to see the Spartans keeping pace with the Boilermakers’ efficient attack, so with a small spread, I’m taking Purdue to cover on the road at -3.

Purdue vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 133.5. That number has remained steady, with most sites listing 133.5 as the Over/Under with no juice on either side as of Monday morning.

As I discussed above, Purdue plays an efficient but very slow brand of basketball, and that tends to lead to low-scoring games. Even when an opponent pushes the Boilermakers into a higher-scoring contest, they tend to play to totals of 150 or less, which shows just how much Purdue wants to keep the pace of games under control.

The Boilermakers won’t have to worry about that against Michigan State. The Spartans have scored 70 or more points in only two of their last 10 games, and are just as content to slow things down as Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 331st in the nation in possessions per game at 66.8, but MSU is hardly faster on offense, taking only 68.7 possessions per night.

With two methodical teams on the court, it’s easy to see this being a low-scoring slog. Each of these teams is capable of dragging a game below the 133.5 total on their own. When they’re both on the court together, the Under is the correct play.