Rafael Nadal vs. Jason Kubler prediction: Brisbane International tennis picks

Rafael Nadal made a triumphant return to the ATP Tour with a straight-set victory over Dominic Thiem in Brisbane on Monday night.

The Spaniard closed as a lukewarm favorite against Thiem — it was Nadal’s first match in 349 days — but it was a convincing enough performance that oddsmakers have slapped a -650 moneyline on Nadal for his Round of 16 tilt with Queenslander Jason Kubler.

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Nadal’s 7-5, 6-1 victory over Thiem featured plenty of vintage moments, most notably in the second set when he broke Thiem’s serve at the first time of asking to seize control of the match.

But it’s important to not get too carried away with one performance, especially since his opponent was also fighting his way back from a host of injury issues.

Although these odds suggest Nadal should breeze past Kubler on Wednesday night, it’s fair to question just how straightforward things will be for the 22-time Grand Slam champion.

Playing in front of his hometown crowd, a healthy Kubler should offer more resistance to Nadal than we saw out of Thiem on Monday night.

In fact, back when he was the No. 1 junior player in the world, Kubler was dubbed “the right-handed Rafa Nadal” because of some stylistic similarities and his willingness to grind down opponents to win a match.

Kubler obviously never came close to living up to that billing, but the 30-year-old has been able to string together some excellent tennis when healthy and his ability to turn matches into physical tussles should make him a tricky opponent for Nadal.

THE PLAY: Jason Kubler +425 (BetMGM)