Brisbane International 2024: Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Fixture: Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem

Date: Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Tournament:Brisbane International 2024

Round: First Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Queensland Tennis Centre, Brisbane

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $2,200,000

Live telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky UK

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem preview

Former World No. 1 Rafael Nadal marks his competitive return from a near year-long injury hiatus against former top 10 player Dominic Thiem at the Brisbane International.

Nadal has not played since injuring his hip during his Australian Open second-round loss to Mackenzie McDonald earlier this year, eventually necessitating surgery.

Following multiple setbacks in his rehabilitation, the 37-year-old is ready to make his competitive return in Brisbane. The World No. 672 has taken a wildcard to appear in the main draw of an event that's itself returning to the tour after five years.

Nadal has looked sharp in practice, but his actual level will only be known when he hits the courts against Thiem. The Austrian - ranked 98th in the world - has come through qualifying to make the main draw.

Thiem's best run during the season was a final appearance in Kitzbuhel, losing to Sebastian Baez. The former Roland Garros finalist also made a couple of semifinals on the ATP Tour and Challenger Tour.

Thiem is making his Brisbane debut, while Nadal's last appearance in the ATP 250 event was in 2017, when he lost to third seed Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals. The Spaniard would go on to reach the Australian Open final that year, losing to Roger Federer in five sets, before winning Roland Garros and the US Open.

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem head-to-head

Nadal enjoys the edge in his head-to-head rivalry with Thiem, winning nine out of their 15 clashes. However, the Austrian has won the pair's last two matches: Australian Open quarterfinal (2020) and the ATP Finals round robin the same year.

Nadal's only hardcourt win over Thiem came in the 2018 US Open quarterfinals in a fifth-set tiebreak, where the Austrian came within two points of victory.

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem odds

The odds will be updated when they release.

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem prediction

Both Nadal and Thiem are quintessential baseliners who tend to play their best tennis on clay but are no slouch on hardcourt.

Both players aren't the biggest servers or hitters of the ball, but move well. However, Nadal's match fitness is unknown, as he hasn't played in almost a year, while Thiem has had two tight three-set wins in qualifying.

That makes it a tricky matchup to call. Thiem's signature singlehanded backhand surprisingly fares well against Nadal's left-handed kicking serves. However, considering the Austrian's relative struggles in qualifying, Nadal is expected to take the win.