Ranking UEL clubs and groups with the Elo system

The 2022/23 UEFA Europa League is set to be the 52nd edition of the second most important competition for European football clubs. The winner of Europa league gets a place in the next UEFA Champions League and takes part in UEFA Super Cup. Last season, Eintracht Frankfurt won the cup. Sevilla is the record winner.

Elo estimates the strength of a club based on the results against opponents and their strength. The difference in Elo points between two teams directly translates to a likelihood of winning against that team. Elos influence decreases when new games are played. The new Elol rating is a combination of all previous results with games from the distant past having only a microscopic influence and the newest games influencing the rating the most.

The Elo rating of all UEFA Champions League Competitors is within the range of 1,300 and 1.900. The five weakest clubs are HJK Helsinki, Larnaca, Omonia Nikosia, Malmö and Sheriff. PSV Eindhoven, Union Berlin, Real Betis, Manchester United and Arsenal are the best clubs. Arsenal has the highest Elos.

Arsenal, PSV Eindhoven, Bodo/Glimt and Zürich are in Group A. According to the Elo ratings, Arsenal is the biggest favourite in the group. Bodot/ GlimT is likely to end the tournament in third place.

Stade Rennes (1,705) is the biggest favourite in Group B. Fenerbahce ( 1,597) and Dynamo Kiev (2,588) are the second and third favourites. AEK Larnaca (0,459) will be outsiders in this group.

AS Roma, Real Betis, Ludogorets and HJK Helsinki are in Group C. According to the Elo ratings, AS Roma are the biggest favourite in the group.

Union Berlin are the biggest favourite in Group D. They are followed by SC Braga (1,679) and St. Gilloise (519). Malmö (471) are underdogs in this group.

Manchester United are the biggest favourite in Group E. They are followed by Real Sociedad (1,760) and Sheriff (471). Omonia Nikosia (Cyprus) will fight to get third place.

Feyenoord are the biggest favourite in Group F. They are followed by Lazio (1,731), Midtjylland ( 1,648) and Sturm Graz (0,664).

Olympiacos, Qarabag, SC Freiburg and Nantes are in Group G. According to the Elo ratings, Freiberg are the biggest favourite in the group.

AS Monaco are the biggest favourite in Group H. Belgrad (Serbia), AS Monaco (France), Ferencváros (Hungary) and Trabzonspor (Turkey) are also favourites.

The Premier League clubs Arsenal and Manchester United are the biggest favourites to win the trophy this season. HJK Helsinki are biggest outsiders. The best group is probably Group A with the likes of Arsenal, PSV Eindhoven and Real Sociedad.