Raptors betting trends: Offence trending up

The Toronto Raptors are enjoying some well-earned rest after entering the all-star break on a 6-3 run.

After a surprising trade deadline that saw the team opt to add a starting centre instead of selling pieces, this team is hoping for a second-half push. Barring unforeseen collapses from teams ahead of them, the play-in appears to be Toronto’s most likely destination.

Here are the latest Raptors betting trends to know before Toronto returns from the all-star break on February 23.

Raptors betting trends

Offence trending up

For most of the season, the book on Toronto has been that the team has a solid defence but simply cannot fill the bucket.

While the team’s overall numbers still tell that story, it’s a narrative that has been quietly unravelling for weeks.

The Raptors’ last 20 games look significantly different than their first 39:

There are several betting ramifications of the Raptors’ improving offence. The most direct is the team totals, but over/under bets are also being impacted. In Toronto’s last 20 games, the over has hit 14 times.

Most of the improvement has been internal as guards Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. have found their perimeter strokes and Precious Achiuwa has made an impact. FVV and Trent are good players to target on overs right now, while that advice is best applied to Achiuwa if he’s in the starting lineup.

This team had been underperforming offensively for most of the season and seems to be finding its level.

Jakob Poeltl makes an impression

Poeltl has played just three games since rejoining the Raptors, but he’s already made a significant impact.

Despite his impressive offensive ceiling, the centre will be a tough player to gauge in prop markets with his new team. Poeltl has failed to score double-digit points in 36.7% of his games this season despite his ability to go off.

As a traditional centre, his usage can also be matchup-dependent as there are some lineups he won’t fare well against defensively.

After seeing his massive Valentine’s Day performance it will be tempting to assume that Poeltl is ready to see his numbers surge with the Raptors, but it’s simply too soon to tell.

Prop bettors might get more value targeting him on statistics other than points, where he’s more consistent. For instance, if his assist line is set at 2.5, overs are a good bet as he has three or more assists in 55.1% of his games. If the line is 3.5, the under has come through 63.6% of the time.

His rebounds are also easier to gauge. At 8.5 boards he’s been approximately a 50-50 proposition going over 48.9% of the time, meaning matchup and juice should determine where the value is. He’s only gone over 9.5 boards 36.7% of the time, so that’s a line to avoid against all but the weakest competition on the glass.

Raptors betting trends: Scottie Barnes treading water

In the middle of January, Barnes went on a mini-scoring run that seemed to indicate that the growth in his game that had been absent for much of the season had arrived.

Between January 8 and January 19, the sophomore averaged 20.9 points and produced almost as many 20-point performances in seven starts (5) as he had in the previous 39 games (7).

Unfortunately for the Raptors, that stretch appears to have been nothing more than a small sample of Barnes shooting far more efficiently (54.8%) than his season-long average (45.7%).

Since that hot streak, Barnes has averaged 15.4 points in 13 games. That is a touch below his season average (15.6) and precisely matches what he’s produced in his 130-game NBA career.

Barnes is still just 21, and he’s extremely talented even if there are some holes in his game. That said, at this point in the season it seems safe to assume his big next step isn’t right around the corner.

That means that prop bettors can safely use his season averages as a guide, and gauge how good his matchups are by how well other teams defend the paint. Not only do 60.3% of his shots come within 10 feet of the basket, but his 3-point percentage (30.1%) is also identical to the mark he posted last season.

Parting shot

A player whose been conspicuously absent during Toronto’s solid run of play recently is OG Anunoby.

While Achiuwa has played well over the last nine games, it would be unfair to call this an addition-by-subtraction scenario.

That said, it is notable that the team has posted the NBA’s eighth-best net rating (+3.6) since he went down with a wrist injury — especially considering the price they could’ve extracted for the wing on the trade market.

Other teams are undoubtedly noticing that Toronto’s defence hasn’t crumbled without Anunoby — approximately the fourth option in an offence that’s struggled for much of the season.

While his recent absence is a small sample, if Toronto continues to thrive without him it will affect the perception of his contribution to the Raptors’ success.

If Anunoby isn’t seen as a critical cog on a middle-of-the-pack team like the Raptors, it might be hard for a contender to look at him as the final piece they need — and pony up a serious trade package.

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.