Raptors picks and props vs. Knicks Dec. 1: Back Toronto to win a low-scoring game
The Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks as a slim home betting favourite at Scotiabank Arena on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: New York is playing well, winning two straight and six of its past eight games but will be playing for the second night in a row. As a result, there's value on both the under and Raptors moneyline for this Atlantic Division battle. There's a third play we're cooking up for this game, too.
NBA oddsas of 2:28 p.m. ET on 12/01/2023.
Raptors picks and props vs. Knicks
Best Bet: Under 217.5 points (-125)
A lower-scoring game feels like the right play. For starters, these teams both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.
Only the Minnesota Timberwolves allow fewer points per game than the Knicks, who might be fatigued on the back-to-back but will have the luxury of defending the NBA's 24th-ranked team in offensive efficiency.
Toronto has been a rollercoaster offensively, failing to top 105 points in more than 40% of its games. New York, which plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA, is not an offensive juggernaut, either.
Both are bottom-10 teams in points per game.
Tonight will mark the Knicks' fifth back-to-back of the season, and they've fallen below this total in the second leg in three of the four games. The only time this number was cleared was against the Charlotte Hornets, who have the NBA's worst defensive rating.
The Raptors have gone under this number in two of their last three contests, with the other landing on 218. In a game that's unlikely to be a run-and-gun affair, expect them to fall short again.
Key stat: The under has cashed in more than 50% of both teams' games.
Quick picks
Raps moneyline (-136): Toronto's length and switchability can make things tough for opposing teams.
OG Anunoby is a premier wing defender and guys like Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam can guard multiple positions. They'll have the rest advantage and they won't play again until Dec. 6.
There should be no concern — outside of foul trouble — about the minutes they can provide tonight. They're Toronto's three best players and, while this might seem obvious, should be viewed as the X-factors based on their strong two-way play.
In the second leg of their four back-to-back games, the Knicks have scored fewer than 100 points three times. Unsurprisingly, they've lost all three of those matchups.
Six of Toronto's nine wins have come at home. The price has moved but is still in the comfort zone.
Jakob Poeltl over 8.5 rebounds (-122): Poeltl is second to Barnes in team rebounding and has topped this number in three of his last four games.
He's a nightly double-double threat, amassing 10-plus boards in nine of his 19 games this season.
Knicks seven-footer Mitchell Robinson getting 30 minutes of run per game should help Poeltl stay on the court, and so, too, should the Toronto big man's defence.
Further, New York's strong rebounding (No. 1 in the NBA in rebounding rate) means Toronto will need active bodies on the glass. This should help, not hurt, Poeltl's ability to amass boards.
