Raptors picks and props vs. Knicks Dec. 11: Fade Toronto against the spread

For the second time this month, the Toronto Raptors face the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: New York won by 13 points in Toronto back on Dec. 1, and the Knicks are my pick to cover a modest spread on Monday as home favourites. As for the point total, recent meetings between the Raptors and Knicks suggest that the over should be in play.

NBA oddsas of 2:40 p.m. ET on 12/10/2023.

Raptors picks and props vs. Knicks

Best Bet: Knicks -4 (-117)

The Knicks tend to take care of business when facing substandard opponents. New York hasn't yet lost to a team with a sub-.500 win percentage, which helps put its 12-9 record in perspective.

Toronto (9-13) has dropped five of its past six games and should be the Knicks' latest victim on Monday. New York did just beat Toronto, 119-106, a week and a half ago, after all.

The Raptors have been mediocre at best overall, but their numbers are much worse when playing on the road. Toronto has the 22nd-ranked net rating on the road (-5.6) while ranking 23rd in points per game (111.0).

New York is 6-3 at home and has covered this number in five of those wins. Coming off a three-game road trip, the Knicks have had back-to-back days off and should be properly rested for this matchup.

A 4-point spread isn't much to ask of the Knicks. They only covered that line in one of four matchups against the Raptors last year, but this Toronto team is moving in the wrong direction.

Key stat: Toronto is 3-7 on the road this season and is losing those games by an average of 5.7 points.

Quick pick

Over 217.5 points (-115): This is the same over/under line that the Raptors and Knicks had in their game on Dec. 1, and they cleared it pretty comfortably.

Dating back to last season, the over has hit in five consecutive matchups between these teams. And the average total in those games has been 229.8 points.

Also, the over is 5-1 in the Knicks' past six games. Add that to a strong trend in this head-to-head matchup, and I think the over is worth a play.