Raptors picks and props vs. Pelicans March 5: Bet on Quickley but fade the game total

The Toronto Raptors wrap up a four-game homestand on Tuesday as they host the New Orleans Pelicans.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is known to play in high-scoring games on the road, but the opposite tends to be true on home court. My best bet tonight is under 229 points, though I expect Immanuel Quickley to still rack up assists for the Raptors.

NBA oddsas of 11:50 a.m. ET on 03/05/2024.

Raptors picks vs. Pelicans

[Best Bet]: Under 229 points (-118)

These teams combined to hit the over when they met a month ago, but I don't see it happening again.

In that game, the Pelicans went off for 138 points — well above their 116.2 PPG average — and Brandon Ingram finished with a season-high 41 of his own.

That happened in New Orleans, but tonight's rematch is in Toronto. Given that the Raptors have the NBA's most severe home/road splits in terms of the over/under, it'd make sense to see the script flip.

On the road, no team hits the over as often as the Raptors (69.0%). But at home, the Raptors have the third-highest rate of unders (64.5%).

It's difficult to know what to attribute this split to, given that the Raptors' pace at home (99.3 possessions per 48 minutes) and on the road (100.2) are only marginally different.

Still, the trend itself is worth paying attention to.

Since Jan. 1, which is about the time Toronto began overhauling its roster in the trade market, the under is 11-3 in its games at Scotiabank Arena.

Key stat: The past two matchups between these teams in Toronto hit the under and averaged 215.5 points.

Quick pick

Quickley over 7.5 assists (+107): Quickley has 31 assists over his past three games, clearing this number in all three of them. And the situation tonight should lead to plenty more feeds.

For one thing, Toronto's top assists man, Scottie Barnes, is out indefinitely with a broken hand. His first absence of the season came two nights ago, and Quickley finished the game with 11 assists.

Additionally, the Raptors face a Pelicans team that struggles to contain opposing point guards. According to Fantasy Pros, New Orleans allows the sixth-most assists to PGs.

Quickley's usage is soaring, which certainly helps from an opportunity standpoint. Over his past five games, he's averaging 36.3 minutes and 7.6 assists — up from 32.1 MPG and 5.7 APG in his first 21 games with Toronto.