Pelicans vs Raptors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 March 2024

Pelicans vs Raptors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Raptors are down bad with a laundry list of injuries and face a Pelicans team that lit them when they were closer to full strength. Brandon Ingram has become one of the focal points for the New Orleans offense and will do damage again tonight.

The Toronto Raptors were showing some new life following the All-Star break, winning four of six games and generally playing better basketball. But "break" feels like the wrong word as Scottie Barnes is now sidelined for the foreseeable future with a fractured hand.

So, the tank could officially be on in Toronto and the NBA odds support this idea tonight as the Raps are nearly double-digit underdogs against Zion Williamson and the visiting New Orleans Pelicans.

Does Toronto have any value as a home pup, or will New Orleans come marching in and cover the big chalk? I break it all down and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Raptors on Tuesday, March 5.

Pelicans vs Raptors odds

Pelicans vs Raptors predictions

The Toronto Raptors won their first game without Scottie Barnes on Sunday, but that was against the Charlotte Hornets. And they couldn't cover the spread as 7.5-point home favorites in the 111-106 victory. To make matters worse, starting center Jakob Poeltl dislocated a finger last game and will join Barnes and Bruce Brown on the sidelines.

So, what is a depleted Raptors team to do against the New Orleans Pelicans, who enter this game ranked fifth in the NBA in net rating?

Well, probably not much, to be honest.

While the Raptors have shown some signs of improvement since their roster rebuild at the start of the new year, those improvements have not come at the defensive end of the floor. Frankly, it’s been bad. Toronto has the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA since Jan. 1 and ranks 22nd in opponent effective field goal percentage for the season.

So, slowing down a guy like Brandon Ingram is a problem with or without Barnes.

As a team, the Pels have battled some consistency lately, but Ingram is doing his part to keep things rolling.

Ingram is averaging 21.7 points per game while shooting 49.1% from the field, but the Pels’ forward is taking his game to the next level lately. He has upped his production to 24 points per game on 49.8% shooting over his last 14.

Yet his point total for this matchup is on the board at 21.5. He’s cleared that number nine times during that 14-game stretch, including the last four games in a row. He also went off for 41 points while leading the Pelicans to a 138-100 rout of this same Raptors team on Feb. 5.

As I said, defending Ingram would be tough for the Raptors even with Scottie active. Without him, it will get ugly. Ingram should light it up tonight. Take the Over on his points total.

My best bet: Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points (-125 at PointsBet)

Pelicans vs Raptors same-game parlay

Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points

Raptors TT Under 108.5

Jonas Valanciunas Over 9.5 rebounds

Not having Barnes hurts the Raptors defensively, but he is also averaging 19.9 points and 6.6 assists per game, so he has generated plenty of offense.

While we have seen the Raptors take advantage of poor defensive teams, they tend to struggle against good defensive ones. In their three most recent games against good defenses (Golden State, Cleveland, and Houston) they put up 105, 95, and 107 points, respectively.

The Pelicans are sixth in the NBA in D-rating and held the Raptors to just 100 points in that last meeting. Let’s add Under 108.5 for the Raptors team total in this one.

Another area where the Raps are struggling is on the glass. They have the second-worst rebounding rate since Jan. 1 and are now down their two best rebounders in Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Pels center and former Raptor Jonas Valanciunas should face little resistance on the boards tonight.

He averages 9.5 rebounds per game and had 12 rebounds in his last meeting against Toronto. Close this SGP out with him to go Over 9.5 rebounds.

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Pelicans vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors opened as 7.5-point home underdogs, but that number did not last long as early bettors jumped all over the Pelicans and have moved the number to Toronto +9.5.

When these teams met in New Orleans on Feb. 5, the Pelicans closed as 10.5-point favorites. The Pels stomped out the Raptors in that matchup 138-100.

Toronto was playing the second half of a back-to-back that night, but this line still undervalues New Orleans. Particularly, when you consider the Raps will be without Barnes, Poeltl, and Brown. All of whom played in that last meeting.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 229 and that’s where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.

The closing total on Feb. 5 closed at 231 and went over relatively easy thanks to the Pelicans’ offensive outburst. New Orleans is on a bit of an Under run of late, going 4-11 O/U but I could see these teams playing above the number once again.

Pelicans vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Raptors have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games at home for +13.4 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Raptors.

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