Raptors vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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07 March 2024

Raptors vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Raptors looked to be turning a corner after the All-Star break, but a Scottie Barnes fractured hand halted that momentum on both ends of the court. Facing a Kevin Durant-led Suns squad in the desert doesn't bode well for the shorthanded Dinos.

The Toronto Raptors showed some life coming out of the All-Star break, but that moment passed faster than a meteor crashing down to Earth thanks to a Scottie Barnes injury. Suddenly, it looks like it’s time to fade the Raptors into extinction.

The Raps are coming off another humbling defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans and tonight, they head to the desert to take on Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns having lost three of four, failing to cover the spread in each.

The Suns have had their own issues this season, but the NBA odds say this matchup shouldn’t be a problem and they’ll have plenty of confidence coming into this one after getting an overtime win against the Denver Nuggets last time out.

I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Suns on Thursday, March 7.

Raptors vs Suns odds

Raptors vs Suns predictions

The Toronto Raptors looked like they might play the role of spoiler and rack up a few more wins in the unofficial second half of the season.

They came out of the All-Star break firing, winning three in a row, including two as underdogs. Even in a loss to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, they looked competitive. Then Scottie Barnes got hurt.

Barnes fractured his hand in the first half of last Friday’s game against the Golden State Warriors, and the Raptors have looked broken ever since. They are 1-2 straight up since the injury but are 0-3 against the spread with the win coming against the lowly Charlotte Hornets.

And if Tuesday’s loss to the Pelicans was any indication of what may come, things in Toronto could get worse before they get better.

The Raptors were humiliated 139-98 on their home court in that matchup, allowing the Pels to shoot 50% from the floor, including 49% from 3-point range (they hit 24!) while shooting just 39% from the field and getting outrebounded 62-43.

Simply put, it was ugly.

To make matters worse, starting center Jakob Poeltl and key reserve Bruce Brown are also out with injuries. And just like that, the Raptors offense looks bad.

In the three games Barnes has been injured, the Raptors rank dead last in offensive rating and 28th in effective field goal percentage while putting up an average of 104.7 points per game. That’s just not a good place to be heading on the road to take on a tough Phoenix Suns team.

The Suns have been battling their own consistency issues of late and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. But this team still has the third-best odds to win the Western Conference for a reason. They are also coming off a confidence-building win over the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets.

Another positive the Suns can take away from their recent play has been their effort on the defensive end of the floor. Phoenix ranks sixth in D-rating in the NBA over the last month. This group also does a solid job of getting a hand in the face of shooters, ranking seventh in opponent-effective field goal percentage for the season.

All that to say, I think the Raptors are going to have trouble getting buckets tonight. Toronto has struggled to score against strong defensive teams even with Barnes active. Without him, it's a scary proposition. I’m taking the Raps to go Under their team total tonight in the desert.

My best bet: Raptors team total Under 110.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Suns same-game parlay

Raptors TT Under 110.5

Kevin Durant Over 2.5 threes

Royce O'Neale Over 5.5 rebounds

While the Raptors offense takes a big step back without Scottie on the floor, an already struggling defense gets even worse. Toronto ranks dead last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating since Jan. 1. And now will be without their best defender.

The perimeter defense in particular continues to be a problem. They allow the sixth most made threes per game since Jan. 1, so I’m backing Kevin Durant to light them up from deep.

While KD doesn’t take a ton of threes per game, he doesn’t miss much, hitting 42% of his attempts this season and is 5-for-his-last-12 from beyond the arc. Add KD to hit three treys tonight against the Raps.

Now, I know this feels like piling on Toronto at this point, but you almost have to. The Raptors also struggle on the glass, owning the second-worst rebounding rate since Jan. 1. and will be without their best two rebounders in Barnes and Poeltl.

Royce O’Neale looks to have a good rebounding number sitting at 5.5. He’s averaging 6.6 rebounds over his last eight games, clearing this number five times.

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Raptors vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors opened as 10-point road pups and even a double-digit spread isn’t scaring off Suns bettors, with the line moving to Toronto +10.5. And why would you be scared?

Without Scottie Barnes, the Raptors are coming off a humiliating 41-point loss to the Pelicans. They struggled to beat the Charlotte Hornets. And got outscored 59-41 in the second half (without Barnes) against the Warriors.

If you’re betting the spread, I would be laying with Phoenix or staying away entirely.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 231 and has been bet up to a couple of points to sit at 233 as of early Thursday afternoon. But if you’re betting the Over, you’re expecting the Suns to do the heavy lifting when it comes to scoring.

But buckets haven’t come as easily as you would think for the Suns recently. Phoenix ranks 18th in offensive rating since the start of February. And their underrated defense has made them a great Under bet, going 0-8 O/U over the last eight games.

Raptors vs Suns betting trend to know

The Suns have cashed the full-game Under in eight consecutive games and 29 of their last 42 overall for +14.7 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Suns.

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