Raptors vs. Warriors picks and odds: Back Golden State at home

The Toronto Raptors’ seven-game road trip continues with a trip to Oracle Arena to take on the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: The Warriors have consistently performed well at home this season and that’s unlikely to change on Friday. Golden State is likely to get out to a hot start in a game where points shouldn’t be too hard to come by.

Here are our Raptors vs. Warriors picks for January 27.

Odds as of 10:03 a.m. on 01/27/2023.

Raptors vs. Warriors picks

Best Bet: Warriors -5(-108)

Although the Warriors haven’t met expectations this season, almost all of their disappointing play has occurred on the road.

This team has a sterling 18-6 home record with an impressive point differential to back it up. Even though Golden State has the 20th-best average scoring margin in the NBA (-0.3 points/game) they are outscoring their opponents by 6.1 points per game at Oracle Arena.

If the Warriors play to their typical standard on their home court they should cover this spread — and the Raptors are below-average opponents.

Not only does Toronto have a poor overall record at 22-27, but the team’s also been a brutal 7-15 on the road.

Those records suggest the balance of this game is tipped in Golden State’s favour and it would be a good matchup for them regardless of the venue. A Warriors offence driven by perimeter shooting is likely to feast against a Raptors team that allows the third-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA (37.4%).

These teams have met once already this season and Golden State won by 16 points despite playing on the road in Toronto — without Steph Curry, who is firing on all cylinders now.

Key stat: Golden State is 14-9-1 against the spread at home this season.

Quick picks

Warriors to win first quarter (-130): We like Golden State’s chances to win any quarter of this game, but we’re especially bullish on them in the first when they’ll be leaning on their starters.

The Warriors have exploded out the gate all season as their 30.9 first-quarter points per game ranks second in the NBA. The Raptors rank 18th in the same metrics (28.5 points/game), and their less explosive starting lineup could struggle to keep pace early.

Over 234.5 points (-108): Points are unlikely to be at a premium in this one as both squads hit overs more often than not. The Warriors have a 27-18-3 over/under record while the Raptors come in at 27-22-0.

Those season-long trends have been holding up recently, too, as the Golden State is 7-3-1 on the over in its last 11 games while Toronto is 8-5-0 in its last 13.