Ratings predictions: NFL Championship Sunday, NBA tripleheader and more

Ratings predictions for the NFL conference championship games, a rare NBA tripleheader and more. With both dream matchups falling by the wayside last weekend, how will NFL Championship Sunday fare on FOX and CBS?

Without dream matchups, how will NFL conference championships fare?

The NFL of course wanted Cowboys-Eagles and Bills-Chiefs on championship Sunday, but for all of the social media palaver about the league being rigged, on-field results rarely shake out exactly as executives would like. Thus, the Eagles host the 49ers and the Chiefs host the Bengals (and in Kansas City, rather than what some have speculated was the league’s preferred outcome, neutral site Atlanta).

To be sure, these games are not mere consolation prizes. Bengals-Chiefs is a rematch of last year’s stunning Cincinnati upset and features two of the brightest stars in the game, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. The Bengals have not traditionally been a big TV draw, but that will surely change if the team continues to make deep playoff runs throughout Burrow’s career. One need only look at the Chiefs as an example; prior to Mahomes’ arrival, Kansas City was a middling TV draw (by NFL standards) despite regularly making the postseason. Mahomes transformed the team into one of the league’s marquee attractions.

Cincinnati’s ascension has already given this year’s rematch a different flavor than last year. When these teams met a year ago, the Bengals were a surprise underdog story that had succeeded just by making it so far. This year, the defending AFC champions are no worse than Kansas City’s equal, making Sunday’s rematch more like a clash of the titans.

As for the early window, neither the 49ers nor Eagles would top the list of NFC TV draws, on which the Cowboys, Packers and Buccaneers occupy the top-tier. Though both teams are familiar, big market brands, they have just prior playoff head-to-head. That lack of meaningful postseason history is not necessarily a ratings drag, but it does rob Sunday’s game of the built-in narrative FOX would have had with a more established rivalry. The quarterback matchup of Jalen Hurts and “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy does provide some juice, but neither player has been around long enough yet to really break into the mainstream. Ultimately, the football is what will have to sell this matchup.

In the out-of-home era, it is likely that conference championship weekend will regularly produce audiences approaching or in excess of 50 million. Last year’s 49ers-Rams NFC title game — not exactly the best matchup on paper given the pairing of West Coast teams — crossed the 50 million mark in the late window and Bengals-Chiefs was not far behind at 47.85 million earlier in the day. It is fair to expect similar results this time around.

NFC Championship: 49ers-Eagles (3p Sun FOX). Prediction: 45.67M.
AFC Championship: Bengals-Chiefs (6:30p Sun CBS). Prediction: 49.18M.

What to expect for ABC’s first NBA tripleheader?

Not counting Christmas, it has been more than 20 years since the last NBA tripleheader on broadcast television. On May 12, 2002, NBC carried a trio of semifinal Game 4s that started with Nets-Hornets, continued with Pistons-Celtics and concluded with Lakers-Spurs. It was the network’s sixth tripleheader of the 2002 playoffs alone. If one looks only at the regular season, the last over-the-air tripleheader was just a month earlier — April 14, 2002, when NBC aired Sixers-Magic, Hornets-Bucks and Lakers-Blazers.

It is hard to believe it took 21 years — a drought that can legally drink — before ABC scheduled an NBA tripleheader. There were years when the NBA’s popularity was soaring (ex. the “Heatles” era) and ABC stuck stubbornly to 1:00 and 3:30 PM ET doubleheaders. Late is better than never, though the missed opportunities stand out a decade later with viewership sharply lower. In addition, Saturday’s scheduling milestone still falls short in one area; NBC’s tripleheaders typically aired on higher rated Sundays.

Of the six teams set for Saturday’s tripleheader, the Nuggets and Sixers are surging title contenders, the Knicks and Nets are both competent, and the Celtics have the best record in the league. Nevertheless, it is the sub-.500 Lakers who take center stage as LeBron James continues to chase the all-time NBA scoring record and the team tries to claw its way into the play-in tournament. A competitive game between the Lakers and Celtics should deliver an audience in line with last year’s equivalent Nets-Warriors game (3.17M). Expect solid, if lower, numbers for the early windows as well.

NBA: Nuggets-Sixers, Knicks-Nets and Lakers-Celtics (3, 5:30 & 8p Sat ABC). Prediction: 1.99, 2.47 and 3.03M viewers.

Additional predictions

Only the Australian government can stop Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, and it took even them several tries. Perhaps Stefanos Tsitsipas can keep Djokovic from his fourth-straight Aussie Open title; he did make him sweat in a French Open final two years ago. Either way, this matchup is for the diehards only; there is no casual fan who will wake up at 3:30 AM ET to watch this. Last year’s Rafael Nadal-Daniil Medvedev final averaged 690,000 viewers. Prediction: 478K.

Australian Open men’s final: Novak Djokovic-Stefanos Tsitsipas (3:30a Sun ESPN).

It is one of the most prestigious tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule, but even Torrey Pines knows to get out of the way of the National Football League. Since the NFL moved back its postseason a week, Torrey Pines now coincides with NFL conference championship weekend — meaning that a final round Sunday is out of the question. Instead, the tournament now goes Wednesday through Saturday. Last year’s Saturday final round was the least-watched in six years with 2.66 million viewers; expect similar results this year.

PGA Tour: final round at Torrey Pines (4:30p Sat CBS). Prediction: 2.59M.

Kentucky may be unranked, but it is still Kentucky. Expect a strong audience for the Wildcats’ matchup with #9 Kansas in the final Big 12/SEC Challenge. So far this season, only three games have crossed the two million viewer threshold. Will this be the fourth? Last year’s matchup had 2.17 million.

Men’s college basketball: Kansas-Kentucky (8p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 2.01M.

— AFC Divisional Round: Bengals-Bills. Prediction: 41.2M; result: 39.3M
— NFC Divisional Round: Cowboys-49ers. Prediction: 45.3M; result: 45.7M
— AFC Divisional Round: Jaguars-Chiefs. Prediction: 28.8M; result: 32.3M
— NFC Divisional Round: Giants-Eagles. Prediction: 33.7M; result: 28.6M
— UFC 283 prelims. Prediction: 1.25M; result: 1.10M
— NCAA women’s gymnastics: Utah-Oklahoma. Prediction: 182K; result: 121K