Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction: Bet on a Tampa Bay bounce-back

Just when it looked like the Rays might rewrite the record books after a perfect 13-0 start, the Blue Jays ended their historic winning streak Friday to open a weekend series.

But I wouldn’t bet against Tampa Bay getting the last laugh on Sunday with its ace on the mound.

For all of the heroics we’ve seen from the Rays’ rotation this year, Shane McClanahan is still the gem of this staff and one of the most feared pitchers in baseball.

And he has been virtually untouchable through his first three starts of the season.

Entering the weekend, the 25-year-old lefty owned MLB’s third-highest swinging strike rate (17.8 percent) and eighth-best CSW% (32.2 percent), and his zone contact rate (75.9 percent) ranked second only behind teammate Jeffrey Springs.

It’s no surprise McClanahan has posted a 1.59 ERA ahead of his scheduled start Sunday — even better than his mark last year (2.54), when he finished sixth in Cy Young voting.

Conversely, there’s legitimate reason for concern for the third-place finisher from 2022, Toronto’s Alek Manoah, who was already a clear regression candidate after he posted an xERA (3.31) that was well above his actual ERA (2.24) last year.

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Sure enough, Manoah’s current xERA (8.01) is far worse than his already gaudy ERA (4.91), and he’s one of just two qualified starters with a strikeout rate (15.9 percent) at or below his walk rate (15.9 percent). Because of how potent this Rays lineup has been all season, I’m all-in on Tampa Bay scoring the outright upset in a minor vengeance spot.