Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, Odds

Aaron Judge is just about the only Yankees hitter the Rays need to fear right now. Even a pitcher with outstanding control like Zach Eflin may choose to play it safe tonight, as our MLB betting picks suggest.

After getting shut down by Tyler Glasnow and the Tampa Bay Rays last night in the series opener, the New York Yankees will look to bounce back with Carlos Rodon facing Zach Eflin as an even-money home underdog in the MLB odds tonight.

Coming off a three-walk day, should bettors expect the Rays to pitch around Aaron Judge again with the lack of talent around him in this Bombers lineup?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Yankees for Tuesday, August 1.

Rays vs Yankees odds

Rays vs Yankees predictions

Zach Eflin has issued just two walks over his last seven starts, but with the shape of this Yankees offense, there is no need to pitch to Aaron Judge. That was the approach the Rays took with the No. 2 hitter in the series opener yesterday.

Judge went 0-for-1 but also drew three walks — the only three Tampa gave up. He saw zero strikes in his second at-bat with one man on base, took a seven-pitch free pass in his third AB, and then looked at five pitches in his last at-bat for his third walk. With a .198-hitting Giancarlo Stanton batting behind him, there is no need to pitch to Judge. That’s giving plenty of value to Judge’s Over 0.5 walks at -140 at DraftKings.

The reigning MVP has six walks over 18 plate appearances since his return, and even though Eflin doesn’t walk batters, he likely will today if he has to. With the Rays 1.5 games back of the division lead, there’s a ton on the line, and Judge is the only threat on this weak New York offense that has a +24% ROI on the team total Under over its last 34 games. 

Another way to attack this edge is with Judge’s live odds for a walk. Currently, DraftKings has him at +700 for a walk/HBP in his first plate appearance. Those odds will shorten up if there is a runner on second base and first base is open, but getting near +700 per PA for a walk or HBP (which doesn’t count in his Over 0.5 walk line) is solid plus money when you consider the current -140 for his Over 0.5 walks. 

Even without the home run chase of last year, there is no need to pitch to Judge, and we’re seeing the same things with Shohei Ohtani of late, too. 

My best bet: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 walks (-140 at DraftKings)

Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay

Judge Under 1.5 total bases

Under 8.5

Eflin to record the win

bet365 doesn't have player walks, so I'm adding Judge Under 1.5 total bases at -135. If the Rays pitch around him, this could be a solid price over likely four at-bats. Since his return, he's gone hitless in two of his three games and went 0-for-1 with three walks on both of those contests. 

Eflin should return to form today vs. a weak offense. He has one of the best FIPs in baseball, and New York is not a team that excels at stringing hits together. That is something you have to do vs. the Tampa starter, as he doesn't walk anyone nor give up home runs.

Bettors have piled on the Rays after books opened this game as a pick 'em and that's where I'm leaning as well. I'm boosting this SGP and taking Eflin to get the win, which he's had no issues doing when getting the ball. He's factored into all but three decisions this year, and Tampa is 14-6 SU when he starts. 

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Rays vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This game opened as pick ‘em but early bettors hopped on the Rays, moving the moneyline to -120 at the time of writing for the visitors. 

It’s a warranted move as the New York offense is still fadeable even with Judge’s return. Over the last three series (six games), this offense has managed more than three runs just once, finished 25th in wOBA in July, and is a big reason the club sits in the basement of the AL East. 

It’s a tough matchup vs. Eflin, who is coming off a rough start but has been one of the best FIP pitchers in baseball with just 17 walks and 11 home runs over 116-plus innings. Eflin is going to make the Yankees earn those runs. Judge is also 0-for-3 lifetime vs. the Tampa pitcher. 

The Rays have ceded the No. 1 spot in the East but can do some damage vs. Carlos Rodon, who has walked multiple batters in all four starts and does not have the swing-and-miss stuff of last year. The New York lefty has a 24% CSW rate this year — down from 30% last year — and faces an offense that took two of three in Houston. Tampa closed as a -160 road favorite last night in the series-opening win. 

The total is also heading south after opening at 8.5. Pinnacle was one of the early books to hit the flat 8, which they did late last night. However, there are some 8.5s still available as of this morning, and with mid-70s temps and winds blowing in at Yankee Stadium, the Under is the move. 

The Yankees' offense has been laughable, and over their last 45 games and has returned a 25% ROI on the team total Under in that stretch. The lack of skill in the back of the order makes it easy for opposing pitchers to work around Judge while also getting out of high-leverage situations.

Tampa Bay is aware of this and walked Judge in three of his four at-bats yesterday. New York finished with just three hits last night. 

Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles are legit too. They are returning a 34% ROI on the team total Under over their last 20 games. Rodon could be turning a corner after such a lengthy time off. He went a season-high 17 outs in his last start and allowed just one run. The walks are concerning, but the Under still has life if Tampa gets to the New York starter thanks to a pair of elite bullpens. Late scoring could be hard to come by.    

I think the Under 8.5 is my strongest side/total play at Yankee Stadium, and I lean to the Rays at -120. If Rodon gives his best performance to date, this could be sweat-free cash. 

Best MLB bonuses

Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now

best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Trend to know

The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees

Rays vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Zach Eflin (11-6, 3.64 ERA): Eflin is making his 21st start of the season and carries a 116/17 K:BB rate over 116-plus innings with 11 home runs. He posted a 4.85 ERA in July but also threw a ton of strikes (71%), had a 30% CSW rate, and a 2.20 FIP. He got hit hard in his last start but has been a much better pitcher than that performance. The Rays are 14-6 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 86 pitches, 16.9 outs, 4.83 strikeouts, and 2.64 earned runs. 

Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75 ERA): Rodon is making his fifth start and is coming off his best outing, going 17 outs of one-out ball vs. the selling Mets. His command has been a big issue with 12 walks over 20-plus innings to just 15 strikeouts. He is not back to his 2022 self but possibly could be turning a corner. The Yankees are 1-3 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 95 pitches, 17.1 outs, 5.82 strikeouts, and 2.66 earned runs.