Real Madrid vs. Liverpool prediction: Champions League picks

The UEFA Champions League is back in action on Tuesday afternoon with a pair of matches, but the clear headliner is a rematch of last year’s final between Real Madrid and Liverpool.

This is the third time these two storied clubs will meet in the knockout rounds of the Champions League since the 2017-18 final. Real Madrid has advanced each time.

Will we see another Madrid masterclass on Tuesday at Anfield?

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction

(3 p.m. ET., Paramount+)

It’s been a tough season for Liverpool. The Reds were expected to contend for the Premier League title but currently sit in 8th place and are seven points out of a Champions League spot.

Liverpool has dealt with some injury issues throughout the season, and the Reds lost key forward Sadio Mane in the offseason. Still, the real issue for this team has been a porous defense that has not really shown signs of improvement throughout the campaign.

We’re 22 matches into the Premier League season, and the Reds rank 12th in non-penalty expected goals allowed, 14th in big scoring chances conceded, and 20th in expected goals allowed on set pieces. Liverpool put together two impressive wins against Everton and Newcastle last week, but the Reds conceded 2.0 expected goals to the latter, despite the fact that the Magpies played most of the match with 10 men.

Two matches before that, Liverpool conceded three goals on 1.8 xG to Wolverhampton, one of the worst offensive teams in the Premier League.

Liverpool’s attack is still humming and could pose plenty of problems for Real Madrid, but Los Blancos have been decent defensively this season. It is necessary to point out that La Liga is a softer league compared to the Premier League, and there is a lot more scoring in the EPL, but Madrid has allowed just one goal on 1.9 xG in its last five matches. The opposition in that stretch was soft, but it’s still impressive.

Even if the hosts are able to get on the board, it does feel like this will be a game where Real Madrid can exploit Liverpool’s poor transition defense. Real Madrid is built to be a clinical counterattacking side, and that style should suit them quite nicely in a match where they can sit back, let Liverpool have possession, and break when they win the ball.

Liverpool has had two decent performances in a row, but that shouldn’t cover up what’s been a pretty pedestrian season so far. Real Madrid is a good price to pull off the upset on Tuesday.