Red Sox-Mariners prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, July 31

Two AL Wild Card hopefuls collide as the Boston Red Sox (56-49) continue their West Coast swing with a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners (54-51). First pitch of Monday’s opener is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. Nick Pivetta (7-5, 4.11 ERA) will make his first start since mid-May for Boston after excelling in a bulk role, while the Mariners hand the ball to ace George Kirby (9-8, 3.49).

The Red Sox dropped two of three over the weekend in tough series against the San Francisco Giants, dropping them to 2.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. After wrapping up in Seattle, they’ll head home to square off with Toronto this weekend in a crucial series at Fenway Park.

The Mariners just took two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks to notch their third-straight series win. Despite having won seven of their last 10 games, Seattle still has some work to do in the Wild Card race, as they’re four back of Toronto in the loss column and have to leapfrog the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in the standings.

Seattle enters as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Boston at +110. The run total is set at 7.5.

Red Sox-Mariners picks: Monday, July 31

Injury report

Red Sox

Out: SP Chris Sale (shoulder), SP Corey Kluber (shoulder), SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow), C Reese McGuire (oblique), SP Tanner Houck (facial fracture), RP Kaleb Ort (elbow), SS Trevory Story (elbow), RP Richard Bleier (shoulder), RP Joely Rodriguez (hip), RP Zack Kelly (elbow)

Mariners

Day to day: UTIL Dylan Moore (wrist)
Out: OF/DH AJ Pollock (hamstring), OF Jarred Kelenic (foot), SP Marco Gonzales (flexor tendon)

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta vs. George Kirby

Pivetta has been working in tandem with an opener for over two months now, but the righty’s been so good during that time that Boston has decided to give him another crack at starting. Over his last six appearances, Pivetta has a 1.85 ERA with a whopping 40 strikeouts in just 24.1 innings. Long one of the most maddeningly inconsistent pitchers in the sport, he’s had his fastball and curveball dialed in of late, and he shows no signs of slowing down.

Kirby, meanwhile, has hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing six and five earned runs in two of his last three starts. He has struck out 19 batters over his last 11 innings, though, a real change for a guy who made his name on filling up the strike zone and getting weak contact that turned into outs. If his new splitter turns into a consistent swing-and-miss offering, that could be the final piece that elevates Kirby to ace status.

Over/Under pick

This is an awfully low number, but for good reason: Both of these offenses have been stumbling a bit of late, and these are two very good pitchers on the mound. There’s always a chance that Pivetta’s inconsistency rears its head, but he’s been great for two months now, and neither Boston nor Seattle cleared this total in any of their three games over the weekend.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

I think these teams are more evenly matched than the line suggests; Pivetta may not have the same track record, but he’s been every bit Kirby’s equal of late, while the Red Sox probably have a slight edge at the plate. This feels like it should be more of a toss-up, so I’ll take plus odds and back a Boston team in desperate need of a win and plenty of offensive firepower.