Red Sox-Twins prediction, odds, pick, how to watch

The Boston Red Sox (37-35) visit the Minnesota Twins (36-36) for the first of their four-game series. First pitch commences Monday at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Red Sox own a 2-1 series lead thanks to their earlier series win in Boston. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Twins prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Red Sox-Twins MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Red Sox-Twins Odds

Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-172)

Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+142)

Over: 8 (-110)

Under: 8 (-110)

How To Watch Red Sox vs. Twins

TV: NESN, Bally Sports

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 7:40 p.m. ET/ 4:40 p.m. PT

*See how to watch Red Sox-Twins LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 6-4 (Fifth in the AL Central) 

Run Line Record: 37-35 (51%)

Over Record: 38-32-2 (54%)

Boston travels to Minnesota tonight as one of the hottest teams in the American League. After sweeping the Yankees, the Red Sox jumped back over .500 yet still sit in last place in AL East. That said, Boston is still looking to find consistency. After a 15-13 opening month, they've largely played .500 ball since – going 13-13 in May and 9-8 thus far in June. Still, the Red Sox feature one of the most prolific offenses in the sport as their 5.04 runs per game ranks sixth across all of baseball. Matched up with one of the best pitching staffs in the sport, Boston needs that offense to stay hot if they want to cover as road underdogs tonight.

Lefty James Paxton (2-1) makes his seventh start of the season for the Red Sox tonight. “Big Maple” is years removed from his time as a dominant starter after injuries essentially took him out of the sport from 2020-22. That said, Paxton may be in the midst of a bounce-back season with Boston this year. Through six starts he owns a strong 3.09 ERA to go along with his 1.16 WHIP. Most impressive, however, is his strikeout stuff. The 34-year-old owns a 12.4 K/9 – a mark that may be sustainable considering he posted a 10+ K/9 from 2017-19. He's looked especially sharp over his last two outings – giving up just two runs while striking out 17 across his last 15 innings. Minnesota struggles mightily against lefties – putting Paxton in a strong position to continue his dominant stretch.

For as bad as the Red Sox have hit on the road this year, their star outfield duo has smashed righties. Both Alex Verdugo (.900 OPS) and Masataka Yoshida (.884 OPS) have clubbed right-handed pitching all season. Additionally, they've been two of Boston's hottest hitters of late. Over their last six games, Verdugo owns a .440 average while Yoshidaleads the team with a .1269 OPS.

Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 5-5 (First in the AL Central)

Run Line Record: 36-36 (50%)

Over Record: 31-38-3 (45%)

Despite some lackluster play thus far, the Twins sit firmly atop the AL Central – thanks in no small part to the Central serving as the worst division in the American League. Despite their .500 record, Minnesota ranks eighth in the league with a +34 run differential. That said, they've been a losing baseball team since the opening month – going 19-24 after their 16-12 April. The biggest issue with the Twins comes on offense. Minnesota ranks just 20th with 4.31 runs per game and 23rd with a .708 OPS. That's largely mitigated by their dominant pitching staff that ranks third in ERA and second in WHIP. Still, they gave up 20 runs in their earlier, three-game series with Boston and thus will need a more characteristic night on the bump if they want to cover as home favorites.

Righty Pablo Lopez (3-3) makes his 15th start of the season for the Twins tonight. On paper, Lopez has had a disappointing inaugural campaign in Minnesota. He carries a 4.27 ERA into tonight's start – a noticeable increase from last year's 3.75 mark. However, his underlying numbers view him as one of the better pitchers in baseball. Lopez owns an excepted ERA of 3.18 and his 29.2% strikeout rate sits in the 84th percentile league-wide. He's also walking less than last season and his expected batting average allowed is in the top 20% of the league. Lopez has had some blow-ups but he is coming off two solid outings – giving up four runs and striking out 15 over his last 13 innings of work. His home ERA is noticeably bad (5.88) but Boston has one of the worst road offenses in the league – setting Lopez up for a strong outing.

Final Red Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick

This is a stay-away for me personally but if I had to lean a side I'd back the underdog Red Sox given how well their stars have hit righties and how well Paxton is throwing right now.

Final Red Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-172)