MLB Odds: Twins-Dodgers prediction, pick, how to watch
The Minnesota Twins (23-18) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (26-15) for the first of a three-game series. First pitch commences Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Dodgers prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Twins-Dodgers MLB odds,
MLB Odds: Twins-Dodgers Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+155)
Los Angeles Dodgers: +1.5 (-188)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How To Watch Twins vs. Dodgers
TV: Spectrum, Bally Sports
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET/ 7:10 p.m. PT
*Find out how to watch Twins-Dodgers LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota continues to function as the only passable team in the AL Central. While their 23-18 record slots them into fifth place in the American League as a whole, they hold a 3.5-game lead in their division. Minnesota’s offense comes and goes but they boast arguably the best starting rotation in all of baseball. Coupled with a passable bullpen and strong defense and the Twins make for a tough out regardless of who they play. That being said, Minnesota struggled away from home thus far and likely needs another monster showing from their offense in order to cover as road favorites against the NL’s top team.
Righty Pablo Lopez (2-2) makes his ninth start of the season for the Twins. Despite a 2-2 record, Lopez holds solid ratios thanks to his 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Perhaps most impressive, however, are his strikeout numbers. With 62 strikeouts in 49.1 innings, his 11.3 K/9 would set a career-high. He showed flashes of big strikeout potential with a 10.1 K/9 year in 2021 but regressed last year. However, Lopez has looked sharp in 2023 with his new team. If it wasn’t for two poor starts at the end of April Lopez would be the talk of the AL Central. Even with 11 runs allowed in 10 innings at the end of April, he still holds strong numbers thanks to allowing two or fewer runs in six starts. LA ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts – setting Lopez up for another monster night.
Minnesota didn’t appear in the top half of the league in nearly any offensive stats… until this weekend. The Twins dropped the opener to the Cubs before dropping 27 runs on them in the final two games of the series. Former top prospect Alex Kirilloff led the way – collecting five hits including two home runs and two doubles. Carlos Correa showed signs of breaking out as well with four hits and five RBI.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
Los Angeles looks to have finally woken up after a sluggish start to the year. Winners of eight of their last 10 games, LA surged passed Arizona into first place in the NL West. They’ve been particularly dominant at home this season with an NL-best 15-6 record. Their +56 differential ranks third in all of baseball, while their 220 runs scored leads the National League. The offense will be the name of the game tonight if they want to cover against arguably the best pitching team in all of baseball – the Twins.
Righty Noah Syndergaard (1-3) makes his eighth start of the season for the Dodgers tonight. While LA must be pleased with the former Cy Young candidate’s health thus far considering he hasn’t started more than 15 games since 2019, that is where the pleasure with Syndergaard stops. He’s just been bad – to be candid. His 6.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are easily career-worsts while his 5.8 K/9 is subpar, to say the least. With just two games allowing fewer than three runs this season, Syndergaard has consistently been hit hard. Still, his control looks solid as he only walked five hitters in 32.1 innings thus far. Additionally, the Twins present a solid matchup as they rank 26th in BABIP and strikeout at the third-highest rate in the league. Consequently, Syndergaard has a chance to output a breakout performance tonight.
Given Syndergaard’s inconsistencies, the Dodgers likely need a fair amount of run support. Luckily, that is something they do well. For the season, the Dodgers rank fourth in runs per game, fifth in OPS, and second in homerun rate. That starts with Freddie Freeman. LA’s first baseman has a ton of familiarity with Pablo Lopez dating back to their time in the NL East. In 33 at-bats, Freeman holds a .333 average against Lopez. Considering Freeman leads LA with 83 total bases and a .375 OBP, he could output a monster stat line tonight.
Final Twins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Despite the success of Pablo Lopez tonight, LA features enough offense that they should keep things tight. Although Syndergaard’s play this season makes backing the Dodgers a risky proposition, their stellar home record gives me confidence in backing them as underdogs.
Final Twins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 (-188)
