Red Wings vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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06 March 2024

Red Wings vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Nathan MacKinnon has logged a point in all 30 home games this season and now finds himself in the middle of a tight Hart Trophy race. With a vulnerable Red Wings squad coming to town, our NHL picks expect the superstar to keep producing.

The Detroit Red Wings will look to snap their two-game skid tonight in the Mile High City vs. the No.1 home team in the Colorado Avalanche. They'll also have to do so without their No. 1 center Dylan Larkin. The Avs sit as a -200 home favorite with a total of 6.5 leaning to the Over.

After watching Connor McDavid inch closer to the point lead last night and having pointed in each of his 30 home games this season, is betting on the home team's MVP hopeful for multiple points tonight the best way to approach this non-conference matchup?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Red Wings vs. Avalanche for Wednesday, March 6.

Red Wings vs Avalanche odds

Red Wings vs Avalanche predictions

Bettors have been slamming the Over on Nathan MacKinnon’s 1.5-point prop for good reason today. The MVP hopeful has pointed in each of his 30 home games this year and has totaled 65 points on home ice. He’s recorded 2+ points in 66% of games at home, too. No player has ever recorded a point in all 41 home games in a season.

MacKinnon has also never won an MVP and is in the thick of a Hart Trophy odds race right now. He's tied for the league lead in points with Nikita Kucherov but after Connor McDavid’s epic night last night, the lead is just six points and McDavid has games in hand.

The Detroit Red Wings will struggle to contain the Colorado Avalanche star. No.1 center Dylan Larkin is out and this was already a team thin at center. Joe Veleno will center the top line. The forward is a minus-12 on the season and is easily a bottom-six skater.

The Avs have taken advantage of their home ice this year with an incredible 24-6 SU record and the No. 1 offense at 4.26 goals per game. MacKinnon is playing for everything right now and gets a great matchup vs. a team that might not be able to match up against him.

My best bet: Nathan McKinnon Over 1.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Red Wings vs Avalanche same-game parlay

Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 points

Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 points

J.T. Compher Over 0.5 points

Over 6.5

I'm pairing MacKinnon Over 1.5 points with linemate Mikko Rantanen. I'm also adding some revenge angle with J.T. Compher who spent seven seasons with the Avs and will be returning to Colorado for the first time since joining the Wings.

Neither confirmed goalie has looked good of late and Colorado's offense could put up six goals alone.

Red Wings vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis

As of 2:00 p.m. ET, Colorado was -200 across the board. The Over 6.5 ranges from -112 to -125 but has taken a little Under money today.

The goalie matchup is confirmed as Alex Lyon will face Alex Georgiev. Lyon has started three straight games but has given up 10 total goals. He'd been on a great run but may have been playing above his numbers. Detroit ranks 24th in expected goals against/60 at even strength so if Lyon doesn’t play above expected, Detroit can give up goals.

Georgiev wasn’t in net for the 5-0 win over the Hawks and owns a 3.04 GAA and a .903 SV% over his last games, but he's also 17-4 SU with a GAA nearly a full goal better at home compared to on the road.

Colorado has lost just six of 30 home games this season. There are issues with having to play in altitude and the Avs have the luxury of knowing its effects on the body and have been in the state for five days.

The Wings are in tough without Larkin and using bottom-six forward Joe Veleno on the top line. The Avalanche are winning games at home on average by 1.6 goals per game. I’m off the Wings in this spot and if I had to choose a side, I’d hit the Avs in regulation at -120 but their team total Over 3.5 is also something I like but at slightly worse odds.

The Over is certainly the side of the total I’d prefer. The Avs offense at home is elite and neither goalie enters tonight in good form. The clubs have a combined O/U record of 68-52-4 and since February 1, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals/60 at even strength.

The loss of Larkin hurts the Detroit offense, but it also helps the Colorado offense as MacKinnon will not have a difficult matchup vs. opposing centers tonight.

Red Wings vs Avalanche betting trend to know

The Avalanche have gone Over the first-period total in 58 of their last 91 games (+13.95 units / 11% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Avalanche.

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