Rockets vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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10 February 2024

Rockets vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The injury report is muddling up this back-to-back matchup, but our NBA picks are making sense of the uncertainty, and see several edges the Rockets should have visiting the Hawks tonight.

The Atlanta Hawks will continue their fight for a playoff spot as they host the struggling Houston Rockets on Saturday night.

The Hawks (23-29) are favorites in the NBA odds tonight after winning five of their last seven, including a 127-121 win at the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday. The Rockets (23-28) are playing their fourth consecutive road game, having dropped the first three away from home.

Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back on Saturday, and each sat key players on Friday. We’ll discuss how this should impact your betting plans in our free NBA picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Hawks on February 10.

Rockets vs Hawks odds

Rockets vs Hawks predictions

The second night of a back-to-back can be tricky for bettors, as teams my choose to limit or even sit healthy players for load management reasons. Last night, the Hawks won without Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, or Wesley Matthews in the lineup.

It’s possible Atlanta will bring some of those players back, but could sit the recovering De’Andre Hunter. Clint Capela will also be out yet again with a left adductor strain. On Houston’s side, Fred VanVleet sat out Friday’s game, and it’s unclear if the Rockets plan to play him tonight.

If the Hawks are missing several players, that could spell offensive trouble for Saturday’s game. Houston has been playing poorly since starting the season hot, but its defensive effort has never let down. The Rockets hold opponents to just 46% shooting and 112.6 points per game, both of which are solidly within the Top 10 best defensive numbers in the NBA.

Atlanta typically scores a ton of points, averaging 121.7 per night. However, this is mostly due to speed rather than efficiency. While the Hawks are near the top of the league in most pace metrics, they have an effective shooting percentage of just 54.1%, which is below the league average.

That number is bound to come down without everyone available on the rear end of a back-to-back. If Murray doesn’t play, then Trae Young (27.3 ppg) will be the only truly reliable scorer for the Hawks, as Bogdan Bogdanovic (17.0 ppg) has been struggling while filling in for Murray in the starting role.

While the Rockets haven’t been impressive during this road trip, they do have weapons that can give a porous Hawks defense trouble. It’s tempting to look at Houston and say that they are a strictly defense-oriented squad, but Alperen Sengun (21.3 ppg) and Jalen Green (18.2 ppg) are both capable of scoring, especially against teams like Atlanta that aren’t all that interested in locking down the opposition.

I’m particularly interested in seeing what Sengun can do tonight with Capela out of the lineup. He may prove to be a nightmare matchup for Onyeka Okongwu, who will get the majority of the minutes in the paint in Capela’s absence.

The Hawks have been the better team over the last week or so, but an overall look at these two teams still gives me the impression that the Rockets are better on any given day. That will especially be true if Atlanta is missing a few players, and the gap gets even wider if VanVleet is back in the lineup. I’m taking Houston and the points on the road tonight.

My best bet: Houston +5 (-105 at Caesars)

Rockets vs Hawks same-game parlay

Rockets +5

Over 242

Alperen Sengun Over 23.5 points

I like the Rockets tonight, but I’m also interested in taking the Over. While Houston prefers to play in lower-scoring games, it’s shown the ability to run with opponents that push the pace, and Atlanta certainly fits that bill. This is a matchup that could easily turn into a wild shootout as the Hawks give the Rockets whatever they want offensively, only hoping to match them on the other end.

With that in mind, I’m rounding out this parlay with a bet on Sengun to go Over his scoring total of 23.5 points. While that number is a bit above his season average, Sengun will have a favorable matchup tonight without Capela in the lineup. That should make him a focal point for the Rockets offense, and help him get above his scoring prop.

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Rockets vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Hawks opened tonight’s game as a 4.5-point favorite. That line hasn’t moved much, but some books have pushed their spread to Atlanta -5. You can find -105 on Houston at +5 if you’re looking for a discounted line.
Houston has done well against the spread this year, putting up a 27-23-1 ATS mark. Atlanta has struggled for bettors, going just 16-36 ATS on the season.

Atlanta is being overpriced in this game based on some very recent results that don’t truly reflect what we can expect to see from these teams. The Rockets should have plenty of options against a Hawks defense that does little to stop anyone, and Atlanta’s injury issues will hurt them, especially on a back-to-back game where depth is important. I’m taking Houston with the points tonight.

The Over/Under tonight opened at 240 points. That number has risen significantly, with various sites offering anything from 241.5 to 242.5 as the current main line. You can find -110 on either side of any of these numbers depending on how you want to play the total tonight.

Houston has been a strong defensive team, and the Under has done well as a result, going 27-24 when the Rockets play. Atlanta scores points and gives them up in bunches, allowing the Over to post a 30-22 mark for the Hawks.

Of those two trends, I think it is the Hawks’ penchant for fast, high-scoring games that will win out on Saturday night. Houston may not run the way Atlanta does, but it looks neutral in pace metrics and has been willing to play to the speed of most of its opponents this year. Against the Hawks, that means engaging in a shootout. I’m leaning towards the Over.