Rockets vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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08 January 2024

Rockets vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Miami Heat will welcome the Houston Rockets to town tonight, with both sides missing pivotal ball stoppers in Jimmy Butler and Dillon Brooks. Bam Adebayo is still suiting up, and our NBA picks believe he'll make life hell for Alperen Sengun.

A non-conference contest sends the Houston Rockets on the road for the first time since December 23 when they visit the Miami Heat on Monday.

Houston is playing just its second away game in the past 11 outings when it opens a six-game road swing in South Beach. The road hasn’t been kind to the Rockets, who are just 3-10 straight up and 6-6-1 against the spread as visitors.

As for Miami, this contest tips off a four-game home stand after playing its last five on the road. The Heatles are feeling the crunch to start 2024 with one win in their last four showings and star forward Jimmy Butler out with a toe injury.

I break down the NBA odds for Monday’s matchup and give my free NBA picks for the Rockets vs. Heat on January 8.

Rockets vs Heat odds

Rockets vs Heat predictions

With Jimmy Butler out of action, the Miami Heat knows they have to get much tougher on defense. This upcoming home stand is a potential turning point for the club, which has watched the intensity of the defensive end wane in recent outings.

"We've been on the road for a long time," Heat forward Bam Adebayo told the media. "It's time to protect home court."

Miami does a good job defending in the halfcourt, and that’s what the Houston Rockets game plan brings to the table. The Rockets are one of the more methodical offenses in the NBA in terms of tempo, running a lot of pick-and-roll sets and funneling the ball through the post.

The Heat will clamp down on the interior, throwing the versatile Adebayo at Houston center Alperen Sengun. His scoring prop for Monday’s matchup in Miami is at 22.5 points Over/Under, which may be a tall order considering the opponent and the expected pace of this contest.

Sengun has stayed short of this total in his last two games, facing tougher interior defenders vs. Milwaukee and Minnesota. Adebayo is a perfect foil for Sengun’s skill set, as he’s long and strong enough to bang on the blocks, and quick enough to guard the 6-foot-11 Sengun in the face-up game.

The Heat are also one of the better teams at defending the pick-and-roll, which is where Sengun finds most of his mid-range looks. They rank Top 10 in opponent scoring frequency for both of those offensive sets.

Miami doesn’t give up many easy looks inside. Over the past 15 games, the Heat rank Top 5 in both second-chance buckets and points allowed in the paint. They’ve allowed the third-fewest offensive rebounds to opponents in that span as well.

While the game total has ticked up since the opener, the potential pace for this non-conference clash doesn’t present a lot of scoring. Both Miami and Houston pride themselves on defense and help that effort by running slower tempos on offense (ranked 23rd and 28th in pace rating).

Sengun’s player projections come in comfortably below his scoring prop for Monday, with many models staying short of 17 points from the Rockets’ big man. His ceiling is still short of 22.5 O/U at 20.9, while my number comes out to 17.6 points from Sengun.

Given that forecast, the Under on Sengun’s 22.5-point total should be priced in the -350 range. However, you can find Under 22.5 -115 at BetMGM books as of Monday morning. Many operators are either dealing a more expensive Under 22.5 or have already trimmed this total to 21.5 (Under -104).

My best bet: Alperen Sengun Under 22.5 points (-115 at BetMGM)

Rockets vs Heat same-game parlay

Alperen Sengun Under 22.5 points

Heat moneyline

Under 219.5

Houston is a two-faced team when hitting the road and is ripe for a letdown after stunning Milwaukee as a home underdog this past weekend. We have two of the slower-tempo teams in the league and the Heat trying to find their defensive intensity for this current home stand.

Sengun draws the defense of Adebayo and a Miami defense that doesn’t give up anything easy. It’ll force the ball out of his hands.

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Rockets vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

The overnight spread opened with Miami as big as a 5-point home favorite, but that slimmed to as low as -4 with Butler ruled out. According to Covers Consensus, 64% of early picks are still backing the Heat at home.

Outside of Butler and potentially Caleb Martin (questionable), Miami has the bulk of its regular rotation players healthy and ready to play after having to constantly shuffle the lineup due to injuries for most of last month.

Whether Butler is on the floor or not, the importance of this current home stand isn’t lost on the rest of the Heat. Miami’s recent struggles have slimmed its lead over the Southeast Division and dropped the Heat to No. 5 in the Eastern Conference.

“It’s never easy after a long road trip to go back in that first game,” veteran forward Kevin Love told the media. “We need to make sure that we bring the energy and we’re good to go in front of the home crowd. So will be a big start for us against Houston on Monday.”

Miami hasn’t been strong inside Kaseya Center this year, owning a ho-hum 9-6 SU mark and a 5-10 record ATS as a host. The Heat have strange home/road splits as it pertains to their defense, sitting No. 2 in defensive rating away from South Beach but sitting 13th in that same advanced measure when defending their court.

And speaking of strange home/away splits, the Rockets are one of the better home best in the NBA with a 14-6-1 ATS count in Houston but are just 6-6-1 ATS away from home.

Houston does sit among the league elite in defense, but that stinginess waivers on the road where the Rockets rank 20th in defensive rating (vs. No. 2 at home). They’re also playing without their most impactful on-the-ball defender as Dillon Brooks is sidelined with a right oblique strain.

These two offenses rank Bottom 5 in terms of pace rating, both running a methodical tempo and ranking 23rd (Houston) and 28th (Miami) in average field goal attempts per contest.

Monday’s total opened at 216.5 points and jumped to 217.5 at many books in the first hour of action. With Butler ruled out and Houston missing defensive stoppers, this number has jumped to 219.5 points as of Monday morning.

The Heat have stayed Under the total in each of their last five games and are 16-19 Over/Under on the season, with a 9-6 O/U count at home. The Rockets are 4-2 O/U in their last six showings and own a 14-20 O/U this year with a 6-7 O/U count on the road.

Rockets vs Heat betting trend to know

The Heat have cashed in for the first quarter moneyline in 35 of their last 59 games, good for +19.25 units of profit. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Heat.

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