Roma vs Juventus Prediction, Odds, Lineups

Eyes will be glued to television sets in Italy on Sunday night as Roma vs Juventus highlights the Serie A weekend. Jose Mourinho’s side is looking to bounce back after a 2-1 defeat to Cremonese this past Tuesday. A win could leapfrog the Giallorossi into the top four, as AC Milan sit three points higher with only a one-point advantage on goal difference. Likewise, a loss could send Atalanta above them if they get the job done against Udinese. With only fourteen games remaining, the stakes could not be higher for Roma.

On the other hand, Juventus has battled back extremely well from their 15-point deduction in January, due to financial irregularities in their accounting. Massimiliano Allegri has led his side to seven games unbeaten, holding clean sheets in five of those contests. With a heated race for European football brewing, they also need to keep the pace at a crucial point in their campaign.

Roma vs Juventus Odds

Overall, Roma are the very slight favorites here in the Serie A odds, with moneyline odds of +160. Juventus sits closely behind at +180, which is not bad for a side that has won their last four outings in Italy. Not to mention, Roma is only 2-2-6 in their last ten head-to-head matches versus the Old Lady. If you still do not like the risk, look towards the Juventus draw no bet, which currently has even money odds of +100. In this scenario, if Juventus draws you get your money back.

Serie A odds as of  March 3rd from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Roma vs Juventus Over/Under

Next, this game definitely points to the under in terms of total goals scored. In fact, the under on 2.5 total goals sits at -180, which is extremely juicy. Both of these teams average less than one goal conceded per match and Roma flaunt an unreal 0.72 xG per contest. Moreover, three of their last four matches against one another have stayed under this total. While the under does not have much betting value, the “no” option on both teams to score has solid value at -125.

Roma vs Juventus Props – Juventus to Score First

Another play I like is Juventus to score first with odds of +105. This prop has hit in 75% of their last eight meetings, despite an implied win probability of just 48.7%. Even on the road, I expect the Bianconeri to come out of the gates quickly.

Roma vs Juventus Projected Lineups and Injuries

Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio, Spinazzola, Ibanez, Smalling, Mancini, Zalewski, Matic, Cristante, Pellegrini, Dybala, Abraham

Major Injuries & Absences: Darboe

Juventus Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Kostic, Sandro, Bremer, Danilo, Cuadrado, Rabiot, Locatelli, Fagioli, Di Maria, Vlahovic

Major Injuries &Absences: Milik, Jorge

Roma’s Attack is Undeniably Underwhelming

While I enjoy backing Roma abroad, they have been so unpredictable in Italy this season. Their underproduction on offense is a major factor to this, having scored only 31 goals this season. For reference, that is the lowest tally amongst the top seven teams, by a margin of nine. They underperform on their team xG and Tammy Abraham specifically has taken a step down from his form last year. Anytime your striker dips from 0.58 goals per 90 minutes to 0.28 in the span of a single summer, you are going to have problems.

Roma vs Juventus Statistics

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Serie A play.

While Roma’s defense can also hold their own ground, Dusan Vlahovic is a different beast up top. The Serbian is scoring 0.60 goals per ninety minutes in Serie A this year, and will give them problems. Not to mention the likes of Angel Di Maria and Moise Kean. All in all, it is just easier to see Juventus thriving early and managing this game to three points, even if it is away from home.

Roma vs Juventus Prediction

Finally, my best bets for Roma vs Juventus include the Juventus moneyline at +180 and “no” on both teams to score at -125. These two plays are my most surefire, with the other props mentioned having slightly less confidence.

Roma vs Juventus Picks: Juventus moneyline (+180), “No” on BTTS (-125)